Too Early For 2012 Rockies Predictions? NO WAY!

As was pointed out, it seems that we are in the godforsaken “lull” period in-between off-season transactions and Spring Training, so maybe some outlandish predictions will spark some debate and keep us all busy for a bit. Here are mine for the 2012 Rox!

NL West:

1. Rockies: 90-72

2. D-backs: 88-74

3. Giants: 85-77

4. Dodgers: 82-80

5. Padres: 75-87

Stats for the “every-day” line-up:

1. Fowler: .280/10/60

2. Scutaro: .295/12/70

3. CarGo: .315/28/105

4. Tulo: .299/32/110

5. Cuddyer: .275/25/95

6. Helton: .305/15/75

7. Hernandez: .260/20/65

8. Arenado: .275/20/65

Stats for the “Rotation”:

Chacin: 15-10 3.75

DLR: 12-5 3.80

Pomeranz: 14-7 3.75

Hammel: 12-7 4.00

Moscoso: 10-6 4.25

 

There you have it. I am an eternal optimist, and I would kindly ask you all to fall in-line…

 

Or, tell me why I am dead wrong!

 

 

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Dj
Dj
8 years ago

Oh my… I love the optimism. Stay out of the Vegas sports-books.

Jaredean
Jaredean
8 years ago

I think I am as optimistic as anyone here, but one of your predictions is for sure a pipe-dream. There is no way the DeaLeR is gonna pitch that many games. He will be lucky to be in the rotation before July I’m guessing and for him to go 12 and 5 he would need to pitch over twenty games or so which is a ton for someone coming off TJ surgery. I do like your optimism though, but think… Read more »

GARY
GARY
8 years ago

Don’t agree with one thing u posted,but would love to drink some of your magic purple cool-aid.Will tell you this,the NL East is going to be a beast.Comparable with AL East.I could see both WC’s coming out of that division.Our division maybe alittle better-not much,and the central is a good deal weaker,IMO.

Mellow_Nomah
Mellow_Nomah
8 years ago
Reply to  GARY

Gary, I completely agree that the NLEast looks daunting, but they play each other so much and the division is so even that I suspect the records coming out of that div might be less impressive on paper than the teams actually deserve. I think the NLWest has a similar problem, though with lesser teams. But pay me no never-mind: I have a pristine record of being 100% wrong with all my pre-season predictions. Would love it if the Pirates… Read more »

Rich M
Rich M
8 years ago

If Arenado hits twenty dingers in the MLB, the Rockies WILL win the NL West, but I just don’t see it happening in 2012 without ever having played above high A minor league ball.

Also Pomeranz will never see enough innings or games to get to 14 wins, I would be thrilled if he gets to double digit wins in 2012.

I would love to fall in line here, but my 2011 broken heart just won’t let me

jaredean
jaredean
8 years ago
Reply to  Rich M

i think he will his 20+ dings, just think it will be somewhere other than Coors…probably CS… i do think that if pomeranz makes it out of ST on the starting day roster he will see that many innings/games and his potential is up there to be a +10 game winner – i’d say he has as good of a chance being in the top 5 as most of our young arms…he just needs to find the arm that he… Read more »

Rocky
Rocky
8 years ago

5 ten game winners from this young staff?

Yes, I think that sounds about right. Pass the Kool Aid Gary:)

jaredean
jaredean
8 years ago
Reply to  Rocky

That would be in line with our 2009 staff where all were +10: Jimenez (15 – 12) Marquis (15 – 13 — have i said how much i miss this guy???) The DeaLeR (16 – 9 and if i remember correctly he was 0 and 6 to start the season) Hammel ( 10 – 8 ) Cook (11 – 6) The difference is all of them had at least a couple of years under the belt, no tommy johns to… Read more »

Agbayani
Agbayani
8 years ago

I’m gonna go 82-80. A couple months ago that would’ve struck me as incredibly optimistic. But the division is really weak all over again, and really, other than the Padres, it’s hard to predict anyone winning over 85 or losing more than 85. That’s what happens when mediocre teams play each other 18 times a year. A gave you Clay Davenport’s projections last week. Here’s an update of what a couple very early,(rosters are not settled) respected projection systems are… Read more »

konaman
konaman
8 years ago

Matt G, I want some of your cool aid, perhaps somewhere on opening day close to coors field!! Do I think the young guys will progress to your projected level I can only hope but, in my mind how will the over the hill gang fare is much more of a question mark?? Agbayani can you see what the percentages were last year for the St. Louis Cardinals, probably about the same I’m guessing. So you never know. If O’Dowd… Read more »

egossage
egossage
8 years ago

Matt G,

Are those stats for Arenado minor league stats? Because there is no way he’ll hit 20 HRs in the big leagues this year. We’ll probably see him make his debut in September. I say he hits 3 HRs for the Rockies this year with 13 RBIs.

Cisco Kid
Cisco Kid
8 years ago

We seem to be forgetting of what contribution we may get from Nicasio and Rogers in the starting rotation. I can see a total of 12-14 wins BETWEEN the two of them which isn’t that far fetched. You add those wins from the wins you take away from DLR and Pomeranz (which was a bit optimistic from Matt Gs prediction), and everything falls right in line. The other 3 pitcher’s numbers aren’t too unrealistic-Chacin is capable of winning 15, Hammel… Read more »

jaredean
Admin
jaredean
8 years ago
Reply to  Cisco Kid

I honestly really like Rogers a lot…i know he has had some melt-down innings and many here aren’t a fan of him as a starter, but I think he really has some potential if he can hone his skills to be a fantastic 4/5 starter and work his way up…his pitches at times look unhittable to me and he is still a baby! Remember that Jimenez had issues at times that showed immaturity on the mound and then something “clicked”… Read more »

Mike Raysfan
Mike Raysfan
8 years ago

I agree with Gary. I see the NL wild card coming out of the NL East. Agbayani, both the Nationals and Marlins project with less wins than the Rockies? Interesting. I have no clue about the starting rotation. Way too many questions for me to be overly optimistic. Couple that with the recent JT show and his thoughts on the starters??? I don’t see Rogers making the starting rotation. I could be wrong but I guess we will see. I… Read more »

jaredean
Admin
jaredean
8 years ago
Reply to  Mike Raysfan

i’m sure it was before the Edwin Jackson pickup…

trip
trip
8 years ago

I don’t think I’m ready to predict a win/loss record, but I do see a return to the Blake Street Bombers. I’m hoping the Rocks have a good to great home record due to having last at bat. But, the Blake Street Bombers should be reserved for the early team, so we are probably going to need a new name for the offense. Who’s going to create the name now so the media can pick up on it later? Could… Read more »

TJ in Phoenix
TJ in Phoenix
8 years ago

So I’m going into the season with this approach…. Did anyone see the movie Apollo 18?? Well, I read how horrible it was and that it was just downright awful. But…as a science fiction fan and horror fan I thought…what the heck, I will expect it to be awful…so I set the bar REALLY low. It wasn’t awful, it wasn’t great, could have been WAY better. BUT-I was entertained and didn’t view it as a waste of my time (although… Read more »

Agbayani
Agbayani
8 years ago

So I did my experiment and ran the numbers for the “what if O’Dowd had done absolutely nothing” scenario. Bottom line: we’d project as about 1.5 wins better in 2012. In other words, we’d be the favorites to win the division. That’s why a lot of us didn’t like the Ubaldo trade. It’s not that we were a bunch of pessimistic naysayers. It was actually the opposite. We saw 2011 as kind of an aberration. Lots of guys had injuries… Read more »

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
8 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

still that doesn’t take into account that the clubhouse was fractured. Doesnt factor in lack of quality ABs. I would take the new squad over status quo in a nanosecond.

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
8 years ago

My rotation on OD:
Chacin
Hammel
Pomeranz
Nicasio
White or Chatwood

Alex White is my dark horse as the biggest surprise for us since he’s a ground ball pitcher.

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
8 years ago
Reply to  Matt G

thats exactly why he didn’t pitch too well when his finger wasn’t 100% healed. Plus he’s had a respectable performance when pitching in the AL before the injury.

ProgMatinee
ProgMatinee
8 years ago

Hope you guys are right because he looked down right horrible. 2008 Greg Reynolds type horrible.

Agbayani
Agbayani
8 years ago

“still that doesn’t take into account that the clubhouse was fractured. Doesnt factor in lack of quality ABs. I would take the new squad over status quo in a nanosecond.” RockyMountainHigh, what makes you think the clubhouse was fractured? I’m not saying it was or it wasn’t, but have we ever heard anyone in the know — Jim Tracy on down — actually say so? This doesn’t strike me as a Red Sox situation where we actually heard about some… Read more »

jaredean
Admin
jaredean
8 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

Ok, i rememberd where i heard it – the conference call with O’Dowd where he was talking about being dissapointed in the chemestry:

“O’Dowd has been aggressive in changing the clubhouse chemistry, saying on a conference call with season-ticket holders this week that he didn’t want “little boys.” It wasn’t directed at anyone in particular, but the group as a whole, which splintered in September.”

That quote from the call was referenced here:

http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_19567230#ixzz1lTu3aE85

Jaredean
Jaredean
8 years ago

There was an interview with O’Dowd I believe (no time right now to look it up) that talked about the issues in the clubhouse. I believe Tulo also made mention. Perhaps someone can find it? I’ll look later if I don’t see someone post about it.

Mike Raysfan
Mike Raysfan
8 years ago
Reply to  Jaredean

Hey jaredean, are you refering to the recent interview with Verducci?

“We stunk and it was a bad clubhouse,” O’Dowd said of the 2011 Rockies. “Last year guys went their own way and didn’t hold each other accountable. We pride ourselves on an ‘all-for-one’ mentality. And last year we didn’t have that. It bugged everybody — not just me.”

SOURCE: Tom Verducci

ProgMatinee
ProgMatinee
8 years ago

I predict Iannetta and Hernandez have good years. Iannetta will walk a ton and get driven in by the Angels’ leadoff hitter, thats great but the patience doesn’t pay off in the score card when you’ve got the pitcher behind you. That’s my biggest problem with him. I’d rather he use his talents to drive in runs, not flip lineups…but I guess that’s not a sophisticated way to measure a player. Hernandez on the other hand will actually play well… Read more »

Agbayani
Agbayani
8 years ago

Thanks, Jaredean. So we do have some cryptic comments about clubhouse chemistry from Rockies management. And I think it’s safe to assume that the players who are gone were some of the perceived problems. And I will say that Seth Smith struck me as a guy who didn’t exactly give us maximum effort at all times, particularly in the field. Not so Iannetta or even Stewart, who just seemed confused rather than unmotivated. We also don’t know to what extent… Read more »

ProgMatinee
ProgMatinee
8 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

I think I saw some lackluster stuff from Stewart in the field. I always felt like he gave good effort going for balls hit to his right but towards his left he sort of left it all to Troy to get. Just a small thing I noticed over the years.

Robb
Robb
8 years ago

I think the clubhouse issues were more around some players being too soft or playing with no emotion. Not necessarily bad attitudes.

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