2014 Rox Review – Logan

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I REALLY HOPE THIS WASN’T WHAT THE ROCKIES THOUGHT THEY WERE PAYING BIG $ FOR LAST OFF-SEASON!

I will say it – worse free agent signing in many years. There. It is out in the internet forever. I went along last year with many commentators who said that signing Logan was a good deal, would be a tough lefty and a great piece for the Rockies for the next 3 years. It sounded so good. This guy survived the AL East for goodness sakes.

 

Oh right, that was when his elbow was healthy. Can someone explain how you give a 3 year deal to a guy with elbow chips? Who you know is going to have surgery and where there is a lot of variable and he likely won’t be 100% early in the season? I have given Dan O’Dowd more credit than most here, but that last signing was really proof it was time to move on (then again, I am betting with the prices last year the only way they get Logan last year was to overspend and sign him early despite the issues). It was a bad deal. Not quite Hampton bad, but bad.

 

How bad?

 

35 games 25.0 innings 2-3 6.84 ERA 1.680 WHIP 2.91 K/BB 11.5 K/9

 

Okay, there is some good in there. He still has very good control and can still get a K when needed. But wow, $4.75 million for just 25 innings? Ouch!

 

A little digging around:

Vs. RHB 63 Plate App 3.00 K/BB .304 BA .365 OBP .883 OPS .359 BABIP
Vs. LHB 53 Plate App 2.83 K/BB .318 BA .392 OBP .938 OPS .440 BABIP
H: 54 Plate App 1.86 K/BB .289 BA .389 OBP .767 OPS .375 BABIP
R: 62 Plate App 4.75 K/BB .327 BA .367 OBP 1.021 OPS .406 BABIP

 

That is how weird the season was. A stud lefty who has allowed only a .706 OPS (including 2014) in his whole career vs. lefties and he gives up a .938? With worse K/BB ratio? And a .440 BABIP? Huh?

 

And then there are those home/road splits. He gives up only a .767 OPS at Coors? That is pretty good – maybe not $4.75 million good, but pretty good, and only a .375 BABIP (still unlucky) and then goes on the road and gives up a 1.021 OPS and a .406 BABIP?

 

Yes, Logan was hurt. But he was flat unlucky. When you give up a .440 or .406 BABIP you are simply unlucky. This is why the Rox, in seeking to rebuild their bullpen and at the same time to max production out of their budget didn’t seek to trade Logan. So, he will be back in 2015, and hopefully much better.

 

They need him to b healthy. He was gone to start the season but started the season April 9th. He stuck til May 9th, and then was rested for a week, pitched some more (with good velocity but some bad outings) until June 4, when he went on the DL, where he stayed until July 5th. He was injured again, pitching only the 11th and 2th of July, then gave the Rox 9 more outings in August and was done for the season. Yikes!

 

So, bad luck, weird splits, and lots of DL time. Can we ask for that year over again in terms of contract for play?

 

2014 Grade – D: I really don’t see how we can give Logan any better than a D. Yes, he had bad luck but still you own your results. In 12 of 35 outings he gave up runs. That is more than 1/3 of the time. And 5 of those were more than 1 run. Boone Logan wasn’t good too many times in 2014, and I think he has said pretty much the same.

 

2015 Projection: Once again I will give a healthy and injured projection. He is a very good reliever and can help this team….if healthy. If not, this will go down as the contract that keeps the Rox from going out there and signing expensive relievers. And this team is going to need to do that going forward, so 2015 is key for many reasons.

 

Injured Projection 40 games 30 innings 2-2 4.85 ERA 1.555 WHIP
Healthy Projection 67 games 59.2 innings 5-1 3.15 ERA 1.205 WHIP
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Agbayani
Agbayani
5 years ago

First, thanks Dr C for doing these write ups! I’m just getting caught up as I start to think of spring. I think you nailed Logan. First, no such thing as an adequate sample size with a reliever who spent significant time on the DL. Those weird splits should return to normal before long. That BABIP does tell us that his horrible run was pretty clumsy, although I remember some honest to goodness bombs he gave up on balls that… Read more »

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