2014 Season Predictions

With less than a week before Opening Day (go here to sign a petition to make it a National Holiday!) what better time to start kicking out our predictions for this coming season.  If you’d like to see just how pathetic we can be in our guesses, look no further than our past discussions:

2012 Predictions

2013 *sort of* a Prediction Post

While the world and most of outer-space is prediction the Dodgers will take the division, pretty much the only other solid spot they all agree on is that the Rockies will bring up the rear again.  The middle three is a crap shoot with the pundits.

The Bleacher Report posted their predictions for all 30 teams (nested into a horrible slide show like always) and here is the NL West from their perspective:

DODGERS: 93-69

GIANTS: 86-76

PADRES: 82-80

DIAMONDBACKS: 75-87

ROCKIES: 72-90

While the optimist in all of us would rather flip those guesses upside down, it really is hard to make a case for this specific team with this specific rotation to do anything but flounder for another season. Not to mention the lack of a true lead-off man coupled with a questionable call for closer and you have yourself 2013 redux.  Let’s just hope EdtheUmp decides to place his Vegas bet on a losing season, that might be the only way we can see any hope from this gang.

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Pooter
Pooter
6 years ago

I voted 1st place!! The Rockies will be tough to beat, especially when Chacin returns to the rotation. Nicasio and Morales have pitched well in spring training, however, only having 1 of them in the rotation with their incositensies will definately be a plus. Here is my opening day lineup: Stubbs CF I see a breakout (Colvin 2012) type year. Cuddyer RF Cargo LF MVP Tulo SS top 5 MVP votes Morneau 1B Rosario C Breakout year Arenado 3B Breakout… Read more »

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
6 years ago
Reply to  jaredean

I just learned that Janish’s out clause is July 1st. So that means we can stash Janish in Springs until July 1st. If Tulo is still healthy, we can let him walk. BTW, reading Purple Row’s comments on roster breakdown, seems like there’s very little mention of Culberson. I really think Culberson makes the team. Why are most fans obsessed with having a left-handed bat on the bench (R. Wheeler)? My own baseball book says if we have all RH… Read more »

Pooter
Pooter
6 years ago
Reply to  jaredean

Janish is the man!! Also, EYJ will bat over .300 this year AND lead the league in stolen bases.

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
6 years ago

I always vote (2nd) based on best case scenarios; aren’t the fans in purple pinstripes with purple colored glasses, and purple Kool Aid supposed to be optimistic? πŸ™‚ My best case scenario summary: #1, #2, #3, and #4 in rotation stays healthy and gives us 12 wins avg each and 180 IP avg each. #5 gives us 5 more wins than 2013 #5 committee. Bullpen more effective in 2014 especially with bounce year from Lopez and Bettis being a major… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
6 years ago

Jaredean – thanks for doing this – should be fun. My predictions are certainly influenced to some extent by the purple koolaid…..BUT……my mindset has recently (the last few weeks) changed based on the rash of key injuries to “important” NL teams. Here’s my big picture take: Washington – best team in NL – win the East – 95 wins St Louis – 2nd best team in NL – win the Central – 94 wins LA – 3rd best team in… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
6 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

Also add Reds loss of Chapman for a solid 4-6 weeks of the regular season…..and you never quite know how guys come back from injuries like that anyway. Other Reds BP members are brittle (Broxton/Marshall). Hoover is closing……..is that the guy from “Animal House?”

Mike in FTC
Mike in FTC
6 years ago

76 wins, 4th in the NL west. Pitching is improved, but still have Rosario catching most of the games. And the 100 pitch limit STILL has the same amount of injuries, leading to the Rockies deciding to change course again (buying the front office more time with excuses). Injuries to Tulo/Cargo only give them 120ish games each. Good stats when they play, but don’t play enough together to carry the team. Cuddy comes back to earth a bit- think .300… Read more »

sabrchip
sabrchip
6 years ago

Dodgers drop to third after a raucous start. Kershaw blows out elbow, Kemp and Puig duke it out. Total collapse after 8/9. Giants win west with 92 wins. Posey and Pence carry the offense as pitching rights itself around 8/9. Rox squeek into playoffs on the last day. Arenado, like everyone else above, has All Star season, gets nickname, NoDo and joins Tulo and Cargo in another fantastic finish after the team is written off at the break. Dickerson shows… Read more »

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
6 years ago
Reply to  sabrchip

You might be on the right track regarding Kershaw. πŸ™‚ Elbow hasn’t blown yet, but inflamed shoulder is possibly messing with his rotator cuff.

Mr. Peabody
Mr. Peabody
6 years ago

Going out on a limb here… the Rox won’t be .500 until Dan O’Dowd is appointed chief scout in the Kiev (Ukraine) sub-minor leagues. And for that he is barely qualified.

roxnsox
roxnsox
6 years ago

Looking forward to seeing NoDo take a leap, watching Anderson pitch, Butler and maybe Gray; seeing Fine China do his thing now and then when he’s in there, DJ pick it, Cargo launch it. Other stuff too. But no predictions here other than Meh. I do love the idea of Opening Day being a national holiday…My coworkers heard me declare in 1993 that for me it’s a religious holiday, and I’m only half kidding. Nobody ever expects me at work… Read more »

Bill
Bill
6 years ago

I haven’t paid enough attention to spring training, especially the other guys, to make a really reasonable prediction. But why should that stop me. I think the Rockies have the best talent they’ve had in quite some time. IF, and of course that’s a big IF, everybody stays healthy. And they are already down their #1 starter. Now if Chacin comes back in early May as now stated that could be a blessing in disguise because he had had the… Read more »

Agbayani
Agbayani
6 years ago

Dick Monfort, the ostensibly sober one, says the Rockies “can win 90 games.” Kiz plays along in today’s DP (interesting that Dickie gives him the time of day since it was Kiz who called out brother Charlie’s alcohol problem — maybe Dick views that as more of a necessary intervention?), but points out that Dick’s contention that “we win 60 percent of the time when both Tulo and Cargo are in the lineup” is wrong. (Apparently it’s 52.6 percent). Still… Read more »

Mr. Peabody
Mr. Peabody
6 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

90 wins?

Genius Owner Dick Monfort really said that?

Over how many seasons? (rim shot)

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
6 years ago

Kiz was a surprise patron to join me at the Purple Kool-Aid bar. Pooter is already with us. Still have plenty of bar stools if anyone wants to join us during the Purple Hour. I have an extra cup of Kool-Aid in my other hand ready to throw it at someone from the Rox management if Janish is put on the 25-man active roster. Don’t need to repeat the mistake of running Tyler Colvin and Chris Nelson out everyday for… Read more »

Bob in Indy
Bob in Indy
6 years ago

I’m going to be the copout and say I have no clue what is going to happen this year. Every year we discuss this and it seems nothing goes as planned…or predicted. Last year we were sure the entire rotation was a mess and that all we needed was to get enough innings out of our starters to let our great bullpen take over. A year later we look back on three really good starters and two disastrous slots and… Read more »

Agbayani
Agbayani
6 years ago

RMH, I predicted 82-80. I think I get a barstool way down at the end of the purple kool aid bar. As for my predicted good/bad developments: Good: — Tulo and Cargo miss only a combined 25-35 games due to injury. They play at the level they’re capable of — 2 of these 3 become very useful bullpen pitchers: Bettis, Kahnle, Masset (I don’t care about the bad spring stats, I saw some good stuff) –Hawkins continues to defy age… Read more »

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
6 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

Agbayani, you detailed pretty much what I had in mind privately. Well done. The only disagreement I have with your assessment is that I think Boone Logan will come better than advertised. I didn’t mention the number of wins in my first post of this thread, but I had 84-87 wins projected in my mind. It can swing upward or downward about 3-5 games depending on the x-factors and unpredictability as Bob in WV points out. I think Nicasio could… Read more »

Agbayani
Agbayani
6 years ago

Ahh, but there is velocity now (but no pitch count) — centerfield main scoreboard, little green line below the batter/pitcher stats. Could be that Chatwood got a late start and is a week or two behind, and I don’t think that flat 4 seamer will bet much play anyway, but he didn’t look close to ready for the regular season. Nicasio has been a nice surprise this spring — haven’t seem him pitch, but yes, he could easily be an… Read more »

Bill
Bill
6 years ago

I predict with absolute certainty that none of the Rockies games against the Marlins next week will be snowed out. Other than that who knows. I believe that the early forecast for next Friday’s home opener in Denver is partly sunny and high around 60. Of course predicting the weather 8 days in advance in Colorado in the spring time is pretty foolhardy.

Colorado Thistle
Colorado Thistle
6 years ago
Reply to  Bill

Predicting the weather in Colorado (even a week out) is akin to trying to figure out a baseball season in advance. Ask the worst-to-first 2013 Red Sox how they liked their season compared to their predicted finish. I’m going with 88 wins and a wild card with a fight to the finish against the Dodgers who take two out of three against us in LA at the end of the season to claim the NL West crown. And it will… Read more »

sabrchip
sabrchip
6 years ago

Please, no national holiday for Opening Day. It’s tough enuf getting tix for the game, as it is.

Agbayani
Agbayani
6 years ago

Really solid NL West preview by Jonah Keri (who lives in Denver now if I’m not mistaken) on the grantland site: http://grantland.com/features/2014-nl-west-preview/ Bottom line (and I agree): Dodgers are the cream of the crop, everyone else could finish between 2nd and last. But check this out on the Dodgers starting rotation (those are their fielding independent ERAs from last year): Clayton Kershaw (215, 2.79) Zack Greinke (201, 3.20) Hyun-Jin Ryu (205, 3.74) Dan Haren (153, 3.70) Paul Maholm (39, 4.04)… Read more »

Agbayani
Agbayani
6 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

Also worth checking out Grantland’s NL West preview just to see the gif of Kung Fu Panda falling flat on his face rounding second …

Cisco Kid
Cisco Kid
6 years ago

In an article in the DP by Woody Paige this morning, Dickie Boy is quoted as saying “we are going to lose money this season” in reference to the fact the the payroll was raised to close to 100 mil. Does anybody really believe this? I truly hate the fact that I’ve become so cynical to anything that comes out of 20th & Blake. It’s just that this management team the Rox possess does not have a very glowing track… Read more »

ProgMatinee
ProgMatinee
6 years ago

I am very skeptical that they are operating in the red.

Is their franchise value rising as fast as other clubs? Nope. They need to blame themselves for that. Really bad TV deal. Their fault. Losing. Their fault. Disinterested fan base. Their fault. Disinterested local media. Their fault.

Cisco Kid
Cisco Kid
6 years ago
Reply to  ProgMatinee

One more thing on the Rox losing money- Hey Dick, if you don’t like the thought of losing money, why don’t you sell the team?

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
6 years ago
Reply to  Cisco Kid

Had I won Buffet’s Billion Dollar Bracket Challenge……I was going to make a power play to buy the club. Alas……I think I lost the very first game!

Agbayani
Agbayani
6 years ago

I suspect there’s some creative accounting going on. For example: the may be factoring in the cost of constructing the party deck this year, taking other one-time charges, etc. Someone who knows more about accounting than me could help us here. Whatever it is, I don’t believe the club is losing money based on an operating basis, and of course the revenue from things like the party deck will come over many years going forward. If Dickie and Charlie were… Read more »

Agbayani
Agbayani
6 years ago

As for the party deck – I said this in a game chat, but I’ll say it again here: I saw the photos and I have to admit it looks pretty awesome, regardless of how much I ridiculed it this winter. I also suspect I’ll feel really, really old if I go there. But will in cannibalize other ticket sales, or will it mainly draw people away from the Lodo rooftop bars?

Trip
Trip
6 years ago

I’m guessing it will draw rooftop fans. Cost is $14, which includes a $6 concession credit. Oddly enough $6 is the cost of a beer. Coincidence? I think not.

And those seats were usually closed anyway.

Agbayani
Agbayani
6 years ago

Seth Smith with the big bomb to beat the Dodgers tonight. But just wait for that lack of passion for the game to rub off on his teammates!

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
6 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

Good game. Things we know about the Dodgers:
They’re insanely talented. They have a low baseball IQ. I thought Adrian Gonzalez looked stiff and old. Brian Wilson only hit 91 on the gun.

As for the Padres, the LHer they ran in out of the BP looked really, really good.

trip
trip
6 years ago

Now, you don’t have to call me Trip. You can call me Eeyore, or you can call me Debbie Downer, but you doesn’t have to call me Trip. Yeah, I’m down on the Rockies, and I don’t mean that in a good way. I’m thinking 74-88, last in the NL West. Again. My thinking goes like this. The Rotation Chacin – It’s been my observation when a player has inflamation problems in spring training, it has a tendency to be… Read more »

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
6 years ago
Reply to  trip

So I guess you can keep Ag company at the far end of the Purple Kool-Aid bar. πŸ™‚

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