2015/16 Rox Hot Stove Phase I – Oct thru Winter Meetings

This little Rox loving community doesn’t always agree with one another, but I think one thing that we do all agree upon is that this coming offseason is critically important. We diverge after that. There are all sorts of thoughts/ideas/theories regarding exactly what the Rox should do this offseason. Mine are well documented. But regardless of what you think, this is the place where we should compile our offseason thoughts. I’m thinking we’ll ultimately need three Hot Stove threads. This first one, Phase I, is for October thru the Winter Meetings. Phase II will be post Winter Meetings until mid-February (pitchers and catchers report), and Phase III will be Spring Training.

Here are some key Phase I dates courtesy of ESPN:

Oct. 4 — MLB regular season ends
Oct. 6 — AL wild-card game (ESPN)
Oct. 7 — NL wild-card game
Oct. 8 — ALDS begins
Oct. 9 — NLDS begins
Oct. 16 — ALCS begins
Oct. 17 — NLCS begins
Oct. 27 — World Series Game 1 at AL ballpark
Nov. 4 — World Series Game 7 (if necessary)
Five days after WS — Free agency begins
Nov. 9-12 — GM meetings, Boca Raton, Fla.
Dec. 7-10 — Winter meetings, Nashville, Tenn.
Dec. 7 — Hall of Fame pre-integration era committee (through 1946) vote announced

I “think” the Rule 5 draft is at the end of the Winter Meetings (it was last year).

What I’ll be looking for in this first phase of the Hot Stove is what the Rox do to the 40 man roster. By most accounts, this is a “stocked” year for the Rule 5 draft. So not only do the Rox need to protect key rule 5 eligible guys within our organization, we also likely need an open spot for a selected player. Last year the Rox “shrewdly” selected Mark Canha and then flipped him to the A’s for Austin House (Canha had a really, really nice year for the A’s – House – not so much for the Rockies Farm).

Solely with the 40 man roster in mind, trading Cargo early makes sense. But the market for big fish historically takes awhile to develop, so this may not be possible.

A more likely scenario will be facing (hopefully) the harsh truth with our multitude of AAAA types like Wilin, Matzek, Brothers, Gurka, Herrera, etc. while simultaneously coming to grips with the sunk cost concept on guys like Logan and Reyes. Bottom line – the Rox suck, so there should be very few no-doubters on the 40-man.

Carry on gang!

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Bill
Bill
5 years ago

Frankie Morales brought back (unpleasant) memories last night. I’ve always thought he had great talent but he’s had moments when he just overthinks and lets the pressure get to him. But since I’m rooting for a 7 game series I was glad to see it. By the way somebody at the Denver Post must be looking out for him. In this morning’s paper (delivered late as usual) the box score completely leaves out Morales. I was reading the box score… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago

Frankie is living proof of the old adage that goes something like “LHed pitchers that throw hard get more chances than anyone else in baseball.”

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago

Regarding Mike Maddux – if I owned the Rox (I obviously don’t!), I’d create a position for him and hire him immediately with the idea he’ll become Manager within the next year. He’s too much of a talent to let pass.

IggyRox
IggyRox
4 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

They could have had Bud Black too.

Gary
Gary
4 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

Kind of my point above.

Bill
Bill
4 years ago

Broncos are honoring Pat Bowlen today. Quite a difference between Bowlen and the Monfarts. Of course he made mistakes, but more Super Bowls than losing seasons says quite a lot. He probably gave Shanahan too much power and kept him too long and made a big mistake in hiring McDanial but didn’t let him stay too long and then hired a football man to be in charge of the football stuff. And while I would like the Rockies to hire… Read more »

IggyRox
IggyRox
4 years ago
Reply to  Bill

There is some irony in the fact that the potentially clinching game of the World Series will be on TV opposite the Broncos and Packers. Green Bay doesn’t have a MLB team, so they don’t care about KC and the Mets. Denver doesn’t have a MLB team either, so Fox knows nobody a Mile High gives a hoot. But let’s go to a parallel universe for a moment. What if the Rockies were a real baseball team, and playing in… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
4 years ago

One thing I’ve long opined about the Rox (since the team’s inception) is that we’ve really never had a true base stealer. Last night, when the Royals brought in Jarrod Dyson, everyone on the planet knew his task, but it didn’t matter. He easily stole 2nd. In my opinion, when building a 25 man roster, there should be a player that can pull that move off on a regular basis. The player doesn’t have to be a starter (for example… Read more »

Agbayani
Agbayani
4 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

Question: check out this article by Joe Posnanski, written in 2011, under the guise of “looking back” from 2015. He nailed it. Wrong in some specifics, but right in general. If you’re writing the same kind of piece, “looking back” from, say, November 2019, what do you write about the Rockies? http://www.si.com/mlb/2014/10/19/si-vault-kansas-city-royals-world-series-joe-posnanski# Switching gears: As for true base stealers … we did have EY Sr. And Juan Pierre. And Willy Taveras. And about 2/3 of a season of Kaz Matsui… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
4 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

Ag – you’re 100% correct, we’ve had a few guys that could have filled the “disruptive, base stealer” role, but we didn’t really use them that way on a consistent basis. EYjr just wasn’t good enough as a hitter nor fielder. As you note, Fowler couldn’t read pitchers/catchers, and we missed the prime Pierre/Tavares years.

sdcarp
sdcarp
4 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

BTW – nice article, thanks for the link!

Gary
Gary
4 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

EYjr.and his agent-Pooter-are probably available.Base stealing is becoming a lost art in baseball.You guys are also backhandedly “dissing” C.Blackmon who was THIRD in all of baseball[I believe] in stolen bases.I think the big difference is not having a second threat ala Taveras/Maz or Denier/Sandberg.The days of V.Coleman,Henderson,Lopes,Wills et.al.are but distant memories.

Julian
Julian
4 years ago

Freeland pitched five scoreless innings today in the AFL. After a terrible first outing, he appears to have pitched well.

sdcarp
sdcarp
4 years ago
Reply to  Julian

That’s awesome – two consecutive really solid starts.

sdcarp
sdcarp
4 years ago

RMH – your Bud Black dream may still have a pulse, looks like the Nats are turning their focus to Dusty Baker.

Agbayani
Agbayani
4 years ago

carp, I’ve got this idea that the 2007 Rockies really weren’t that different from the 2014-15 Royals. Look at the speed at the top of the order just in terms of stolen bases: Taveras: 33 of 42 Matsui: 32 of 36 That’s 65 steals in 76 attempts. An 86 % rate. The rest of the team didn’t do a whole lot on the basepaths, but Willy and Kaz had the ability to put the pressure on a defense and added… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
4 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

It always blew my mind that we had that “blip on the radar” base stealing/speed 2007 year and never really went back to it. Ag – you know I frequently rail against the failure of Rockies player development at the minor league level (mainly pitching development). But when you look at that 2007 roster (I just re-looked at it to jog my memory), there were a lot of promising, good, young players – mostly offense. Tulo, Iannetta, Stewart, Ubaldo, Holliday,… Read more »

Agbayani
Agbayani
4 years ago

Carp, some of it really is just patience. The Ubaldo trade: yeah, Pomeranz and White were total busts. Or maybe Pomeranz wasn’t after all; Pom with the A’s: 10-10, 3.08, 8.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9. That’s about half of his innings as a starter, half in relief. That’s why I mentioned KC and Hochevar. Look at his ERAs his first 5 seasons, all as a starter: 5.51, 6.55, 4.81, 4.68, 5.73. And after that putrid run … Dayton Moore resigns him… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
4 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

You’re correct – somewhere above I mention the slow development of Gordon and Moustakas. They have been very patient. But they also never pretended (at least not that I remember) to be a contender anywhere in that 2006-2013 window. They always had a target (or as I frequently say – “window”) in mind. They made their moves with that window in mind. I really think Monfart believes that by signing Morneau or Cuddyer of Guthrie that he can contend the… Read more »

Bill
Bill
4 years ago

I believe in either 2007 or 2009 Rockies played a playoff or world series game in Coors at the same time Broncos were playing on Monday night football. That time I watched the Rockies. I have no idea what game drew better ratings here or nationally. I’m guessing here it would still be the Broncos because this is a Bronco town plain and simple and I don’t think it was in the Josh McDaniel era. On Sunday night I turned… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
4 years ago
Reply to  Bill

Bill – if you believe what you read, the Nats offered Black 1.6M, and he was appalled at the lowball offer. To put that in perspective, we paid (or are paying) Boone Logan 15M over 3 years. Let me ask the entire RWO crowd, for 3 years, 15M dollars, who could have a bigger positive impact on the Rockies future, Bud Black or Boone Logan? DUH!!!!!! It’s hard to calculate the value of a Bud Black or Mike Maddux, buts… Read more »

Bill
Bill
4 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

I agree. Some of these player contracts for players beyond their prime is incredible. Michael Cuddyer who I believe started the first game in the playoffs for the Mets and virtually disappeared after that is due for for a 4 million dollar raise next year. Luckily that was one (maybe the only one?) of Bridich’s good moves.

sdcarp
sdcarp
4 years ago
Reply to  Bill

Bill – the thing I find humorous is that our cheap a** penny pinching Owner will occasionally venture out and give some washed up veteran a nice contract (Logan, Cuddyer, Morneau for example) and sometimes get some nice mileage out of said contract. But he would be MUCH better off spending that money on infrastructure to establish a sustainable, renewable base of cheap, young players. I don’t fault Monfort for being a penny pincher (in fact, I have a great… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
4 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

My point above is……for Logan’s 15M contract, I’m guessing you could have a Mike Maddux / Bud Black type pitching guru AND establish a Complex League team in Phoenix. That’s an infinitely more sustainable model than buying old players.

sdcarp
sdcarp
4 years ago

Ladies and Gents, good read here;

http://www.purplerow.com/2015/11/4/9663894/colorado-rockies-prospects-rookie-league-arizona-complex-team

I think I was aware of this, although I haven’t previously heard the terminology “Complex League.” The 29 other Organizations have a Complex League team. The Rockies don’t. We can’t develop pitching to save our life’s. What’s wrong with this picture?

Bill
Bill
4 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

Maybe Dick Montfert subscribes to the theory my mother would tell me when I wanted to do something she didn’t want me to do, “just because everybody is doing it, doesn’t make it right.” But my mother (and father) had some success raising kids, other than being the only team that’s never lost 100 games the “woe is me” Rockies haven’t had much success. I know they keep hoping for another September and October of 2007 but you would think… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
4 years ago

Take Gonzalez German (the man with two last names) off the 40 man roster. He’s elected free agency rather than accepting an outright assignment to the minors.

Gary
Gary
4 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

I can live with that,but not sure Walt can.He seemed to use this guy every day.

Gary
Gary
4 years ago

Ag,Chris Martin released by Yankees.

Julian
Julian
4 years ago

Raimel Tapia goes 4 – 4 today, including an inside the park HR and a double (his third), plus 2 RBIs. His batting average rose to an even .300. Not bad for a 21 year old in the AFL.

sdcarp
sdcarp
4 years ago
Reply to  Julian

Me likie!

sdcarp
sdcarp
4 years ago
sdcarp
sdcarp
4 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

I’ve thought about this some since I posted the link. Keeping in mind I live by the KISS principle (Keep It Simple Stupid), he’s my deductive reasoning: 1. We know Boras like to take his clients to Free Agency. 2. We know he was seething mad when Cargo signed a Club friendly contract. 3. We can deduce that if NoDo wanted to go to Free Agency, he would certainly be aligned with Boras and a change wouldn’t seem necessary. 4.… Read more »

roxnsox
roxnsox
4 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

I like the way you’re thinking!

sdcarp
sdcarp
4 years ago

More good stuff – nice article on DJ:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/dj-on-the-dance-floor/

This one is written from a fantasy perspective, but definitely applicable to “real” life. No surprises.

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
4 years ago

It was a nice break to step away from RWO and I’m getting my batteries recharged. I appreciate sdcarp and others keeping RWO updated while the regular writers went fishing as soon as the season ended. This morning I was getting caught up on the Rockies’ news. That made my day or maybe actually “made my YEAR” when Arenado dumped Bor-ass. I was thinking I wanted to buy the Arenado jersey since the Tulo trade (I currently have the Tulo… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
4 years ago

Good to have you back from the fishing trip RMH! Our friend Ag has been pointing the Royals’ model for a while as well. I don’t disagree but do caution that while the Royals don’t have the elite, shut-down SP pitching of the Mets/Cards/Dodgers, they’re not “bad.” They can also entice FA’s to sign there. I fear that we’ll never be able to entice top level (or even mid-level) FA SPers to sign up to pitch half their games at… Read more »

Agbayani
Agbayani
4 years ago

It is good to have you back, RMH. PUT THE BALL IN PLAY! I couldn’t agree more, particularly for a team that plays half its games in Coors Field which turns balls in play into hits (and doubles, and triples) at a higher rate than any other park. Seems like a no-brainer, right? And we do have the potential bullpen arms. Miguel Castro looks like he’ll probably stay in the pen. He’s 20 year old. Kelvin Herrera pitched very little… Read more »

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
4 years ago

http://www.purplerow.com/2015/11/5/9672584/colorado-rockies-player-development-grand-junction-brendan-rodgers-peter-lambert This is a great article and gives me a lot of warmth during the long, cold winter. It looks like the Grand Junction coach staff has been instrumental in developing the players. High praise for Brennan Rodgers as expected and he even learned to speak Spanish so he can hang out with his teammates. I loved the reports on three pitchers drafted this year: Peter Lambert, Parker French, and Javier Medina. My favorite snippet – French issued two walks… Read more »

Gary
Gary
4 years ago

Update on Chris Martin.His contract was sold to Japanese team.Sorry Ag.But it looks like Jeremy Guthrie may become available so there’s always that.

Agbayani
Agbayani
4 years ago

Gary, I’m glad someone remembers my Chris Martin fandom. I’ll be watching his Japan League stats! As for Guthrie … hmm, let me think of the best stat for that one … wait, I’ve got it!

World Series Championship Rings:

Guthrie 1

All Monforts Combined 0

Gary
Gary
4 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

I think the Royals banned bike riding in his contract which allowed him to barely serviceable.

Julian
Julian
4 years ago

RMH, I think that you trade CarGo for pitching this offseason. We should be able to get two or three solid prospects for him from a team that thinks that it is close. I’m reluctant to trade top level prospects at this point. You trade Reyes to a team badly in need of infielders who has an overpriced pitcher that it wants to unload that still is good enough to pitch in our rotation (so, he doesn’t have to be… Read more »

Bob K.
Bob K.
4 years ago

My opinion is that the Rockies are being run by idiots. Rumored to have interest in signing Daniel Murphy.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/rockies-have-considered-signing-daniel-murphy.html

Bill
Bill
4 years ago
Reply to  Bob K.

My son-in-law is a Mets fan and texted the Murphy rumor. Murphy had a super week. That’s it one week! We know he’s a lousy fielding 2B and I don’t think he’s great shakes at 1B either. They can’t be serious. But of course they probably are.

3 words for Dick and CharlIe” PITCHING, PITCHING, PITCHING.

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
4 years ago

NO NO NO to Dan Murphy. He can’t field.

I’ll modify Bill’s bold comment: “PITCHERS THAT DO NOT NOT NOT WALK HITTERS”

When can you arrive in Denver Parker French?

sdcarp
sdcarp
4 years ago

I’ll stay away from a Daniel Murphy analysis and talk in “broader” terms. The Rockies are dumb asses if they sign ANY player with a qualifying offer – PERIOD. Sure, our first pick is protected, but the 2016 amateur draft should be the deepest in recent memory and we need to shrewdly use our 2nd pick as well (it could be as good quality-wise as a mid-1st round pick this past year). This (any qualifying offer FA – not just… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
4 years ago

Update – teams that are saying they did NOT win the Byung Ho Park posting derby:

Baltimore
Boston
Pittsburgh
San Diego
Texas
Oakland
Cleveland

Don’t know if we should take this as a good sign, or simply that the national baseball press doesn’t check-in with the Rockies because we’ve managed to make ourselves irrelevant.

sdcarp
sdcarp
4 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

More teams out of the BHP sweepstakes: Toronto LA – both teams NYM Detroit Nats Cards So if we believe the blog-o-sphere and Twitter, 14 teams are out. Let’s attempt some deductive reasoning to add to the list. Other teams with solid 1st basemen under contract: Chicago Cubs (Rizzo) Atlanta (Freeman) Arizona (Goldy) KC (Hosmer) CWS (Abreu) Minnesota (Mauer) NYY (Texiera and Bird) Cincinnati (Votto) San Francisco (Belt and Posey) Of course this is cloudy, especially with the AL teams… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
4 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

BTW – here’s why I like Byung-ho Park: 1. Ridiculous numbers in Korea. Now……you should say “whoopy skip – that doesn’t mean shit sdcarp.” And I would agree except that his former teammate Kang did a really, really nice job with Pittsburgh this past year. Park is generally considered the better offensive player of the two. So I think it does translate a bit. Not Jose Abreu level…..but could be really solid. 2. He’s RHed – which leaves Ben Paulsen… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
4 years ago

In the good news department – Kyle Freeland and Raimel Tapia have made the AFL all-star team. Don’t get too excited, seems like about half the players make this team. BUT – this is a very good sign for Freeland after a disasterous 1st start in the AFL. Very nice bounce back.

Julian
Julian
4 years ago

Freeland didn’t pitch well in the all star game, but at least he made it. I think that some of the Rockies relievers have also pitched well in the AFL. No way should we go after Murphy. I have no idea why we’d go after any position player in free agency, short of a one year deal with a midlevel player. Repeat the mantra: save our money, and focus on the contention window. Believe in and develop our prospects, and… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
4 years ago
Reply to  Julian

Julian – there’s one guy I like “IF” we trade Cargo. Austin Jackson. Jackson is in desparate need of a 1 year pillow contract. I would sign him (if there’s an outfield vacancy so that he can play everyday), hope that he has that Coors bounce back like Cuddyer and Morneau experienced, then flip him at the deadline. He would be a very attractive 6 week rental to a contender. Keep in mind our initial signings of Cuddyer and Morneau… Read more »

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
4 years ago
Reply to  Julian

Carlos Estevez pitched in the East-West all star game, but he played in the same game as Raimel Tapia. Scouts reports (via MLB tv announcers) say – easy arm, big sized body frame, no secondary pitch. So sounds like good enough for lower levels, but won’t work at the MLB level without secondary pitch.

Julian
Julian
4 years ago

Carp, MLBTraderumors predicts that Austin Jackson will make 12 million dollars on a one year contract. That seems like a lot for us to invest for an outfielder; if we can’t trade him due to injury or lack of performance, we’re out a lot of money. Of course, if we do trade CarGo for pitchers, who would be the right fielder if we have Corey in left and Charlie in center? Brandon seems like more of a fourth or fifth… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
4 years ago
Reply to  Julian

Jackson is a great “risk” IF, IF, IF we trade Cargo and have committed to rebuilding. He holds the spot for 4 months, then you flip him for a pitching Prospect.

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
4 years ago

Minnesota wins the bid (negotiating rights) for BHP at $12.85M. Sounds like the Rox were close to winning, but no cigar.

sdcarp
sdcarp
4 years ago

Gents – I started a Hot Stove Pre Winter Meetings 1A thread. I suggest we switch over to that one, that way we don’t have to wade through 250+ comments.

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