The June 9th-11th amateur baseball draft is rapidly approaching. As noted previously, there is all sorts of player information as well as mock drafts available all over the web. Our friends at Purple Row have been covering the top amateur players on at least a weekly basis for some time now. In my opinion, educated Rox fans are really beginning to embrace the rebuild concept and are beginning to follow what’s happening within the Rox Farm. With that in mind, here’s an effort to condense the information as it relates to the Rockies. I vote for keeping all draft related comments in this thread. As always, here are several “primers;”
1. The Rockies have early picks #4, #38, #45, and #81.
2. This has been widely regarded as a “deep” draft for over a year now. Most experts continue to maintain this is indeed the case.
3. Sdcarp’s #1 draft motto is “pick the best player available, regardless of position, with your 1st round pick.” Last year this was an easy concept with only 3 obvious dominant players available and the Rox drafting 3rd. Fortunately, the Rox DID execute this instead of caving to the never ending need for pitching. The pick was Brendon Rodgers. I remain 100% convinced we’ll all be happy with this decision in the coming years.
4. Fast forward to this year – there isn’t an obvious #1. Also, the best guys seem to be distributed over several positions. So drafting “best available” and for “need” might in fact coincide.
5. Because of the depth in this year’s Draft, you’re going to hear the terminology “under-slot” quite a bit. An example of this as it pertains to the Rox might look like selecting Micky Moniak or Corey Ray with the 4th OA pick (slightly higher than where they’re projected to go) and subsequently signing them for less than the MLB “slot” allocation. That saved money can then be used at picks #38 and #45 to sign “over” slot – especially helpful if pick #38 and/or #45 is a HS pitcher that has already signed with a marque college program.
6. If the Rox go offense with the #4 pick, I look for them to go pitching with #38 and #45. I believe the reverse is true as well. If we go pitching at #4 (Pint for example), then look for offense at #38 and #45. Honestly……this year’s #4 pick may be decided by our Scout’s opinions about what will be available at #38 and #45.
Because this year’s pool of talent is deep and balanced, here’s an attempt to “group” the likely top 10 picks (a “bakers” 10 if you will):
Tier 1:
Jason Groome HS LHP
AJ Puk College LHP
Kyle Lewis College RHed OFer – all around hitter w/solid corner OF defense.
Riley Pint HS RHP – the biggest velocity pitcher this year.
UPDATE 06/07/2016 – Jason Groome is falling, Mickey Moniak is rising. Moniak could go to the Phils at #1.
Tier 2:
Mickey Moniak HS RHed OFer – most advanced HS hitter, fastest “riser” in draft.
Nick Senzel College 3B
Delvin Perez HS SS – dynamic 17 year old from Puerto Rico that qualifies for amateur draft
Tier 3:
Corey Ray College OFer – speed based top of the lineup OFer
Zack Collins HS C
Dakota Hudson College RHP
Ian Anderson HS RHP – bit of a sleeper. Advanced HS pitcher with very easy, mechanically correct 92-95 mph velocity.
As noted in a couple of my previous comments on other threads – my personal first choice for the Rox is Kyle Lewis. Unfortunately, I believe he’ll go to either Cincinnati or Atlanta at #2 or #3 OA. I believe Groome will go #1 OA to the Phillies. I really like Groome, Pint, and Moniak. I’m not quite so high on Puk. Let’s see how this progresses between now and June 9th.
UPDATED SDCARP PROJECTIONS:
1. Phils – Moniak
2. Reds – Senzel
3. Braves – Complete wildcard
4. Rockies – Lewis/Pint/Puk (please “no” on Puk)
Mock Draft 3.0 from Baseball America (with a good explanation of the logic behind taking each player);
http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/mock-draft-3-puk/#7gIWlw34BKiXceSw.97
IMO – the hardest part of projecting the Rox #4 pick is the Braves picking right in front of them at #3. They’re (the Braves) all over the place. Their system desparately needs an infusion of offensive talent, but their history says “pitching.”
From our friends at Purple Row – their Mock Draft 2.0:
http://www.purplerow.com/2016/5/20/11683114/mlb-draft-2016-mock-draft-first-round-compensation-competitive-balance-picks
These guys have been doing a fantastic job following this for sometime now, and this represents some significant changes from Mock Draft 1.0. One thing that I agree with these guys about (and have previously stated) – if Rox go Pitcher at #4, look offense at #38 and #45. The reverse is also true. If we go offense at #4, look for pitchers at #38 and #45.
One additional note – – Nick Senzel (University of Tennessee – 3B) is moving up boards. His offense has never been questioned. He HAS been answering defensive question this Spring (to the positive obviously). One out-of-the-box thought here – he could be what the Rox need at 1B.
Didn’t we do OK with another University of Tennessee 1B-man?
The two Titan college baseball conferences (ACC and SEC) kickoff their tournaments this week at the Durham Athletic Park and Hoover, AL respectively. Tons of prospects in action including potential top 5 overall picks Puk (Florida), Senzel (Tennessee) and Corey Ray (Louisville). The ACC in particular is insanely balanced with a legitimate half-dozen potential winners.
Q&A with Prospect guru Jim Callis:
http://www.the3rdmanin.com/qa-mlb-coms-jim-callis-2/
This sort of highlights the unpredictability at the top of this year’s draft.
Great – not good – article from Purple Row describing the under-slot deal with a hypothetical example for the Rockies:
http://www.purplerow.com/2016/5/23/11737272/mlb-draft-2016-under-slot-deal-zach-collins
After reading several articles regarding mock draft, I would like to go with Mickey Moniak.
We may have received a small clue regarding the top of the draft after yesterday’s Braves/Orioles trade. The Braves received the Orioles 2nd round pick (#70 something I think – and of course the slot money) for a washed up, 3M Brian Matsuz whom they immediately released. This tells me they may be targeting Groome with the #3 OA pick. Groome is said to have high signing demands. BTW – I sincerely hope the Rox don’t follow the Orioles lead… Read more »
I hope we stick with the draft. Keep the momentum going. Seems we’ve done much better with our early picks since a dry spell after the Tulo draft.
The Braves are a train wreck at the moment. But I think they’ve made some very innovative, out-of-the-box deals in the last two years. The jury is still out on whether the deals will pay off or not. But I do applaud their willingness to think outside the norm.
Massive Prospect day at the ACC Tournament today with Florida State (AJ Puk – although I don’t believe he’s the starter), Miami (Zack Collins), Louisville (Corey Ray), NC State (just a good all-around team), and Georgia Tech all in action.
NC State 3 – FSU 1 through 5 innings. It’s a clash of titans in the freakin’ 1st round. This tournament will be crazy.
My personal first choice with the #4 OA pick for the Rox (complete with video courtesy of FanGraphs):
Kyle Lewis
I’ve stated previously I didn’t think he would fall to the Rox. But the Braves trade last week appears to be a transparent attempt to gain money to sign Jason Groome at #3 OA. Phils appear to be leaning Puk #1 OA. Reds? Nick Senzel’s name keeps popping up.
More Kyle Lewis video courtesy of MLB.com;
Kyle Lewis Video via MLB.com
Interesting to me commentator uses Jason Heyward comparable. I also see a little Eric Davis. Draft him and he’s the heir apparent to Cargo in RF.
Hot off the presses:
Baseball America Mock Draft 4.0
I disagree with these guy’s current thoughts on Atlanta’s pick. I think Braves go Jason Groome. But…….I’ll be very happy with this scenario for the Rox.
A name to remember – “Bo Bichette.” That’s right, Dante’s son. 2bman. Looks like about a 3rd talent.
One more video clip of Lewis from Thursday at the Southern Conference Baseball Tournament in Greenville, SC;
Kyle Lewis Thursday
The Denver Post had a short Q&A with Bridich yesterday and it was mentioned that he’s been in the southeast watching baseball. I’m guessing everyone assumes that was the scout the rather unbelievable ACC tournament in Drurham….and he probably did go there. But I’m guessing he also visited Greenville, SC.
NCAA Tournament Bracket is out:
Mercer (Kyle Lewis’s school) did NOT make the tournament. They lost to Western Carolina in the final of the Southern Conference tournament. This might keep Lewis under the radar just a bit……and also frees him to visit teams prior to the draft.
Sort of insane. 7 Regionals being hosted by SEC schools, 6 by ACC schools. 11 ACC schools in the tournament
The guys at Purple Row are killing this. Far better than anyone else in Baseball Media. Here’s their latest mock: Purple Row Latest Mock Draft To me, this draft is almost coming down to a window into the Rox philosophy vs. taking the best player (simply because there seems to be 8-10 equally viable players representing virtually every position). What I mean is this – High School vs. College. While I think our Farm is very good, I think it’s… Read more »
One additional note (if you look down the Purple Row Mock to our 38th and 45th picks)…..Bo Bichette (Dante’s son) is legit. I’ve seen him show up in the 40-60 range on several non-Rockies sites to teams other than the Rockies. The Purple Row guys aren’t putting him there because he’s Dante’s son. That’s about where he belongs. He profiles as an offensive minded, power (I know….shocker, right) 2nd baseman at the moment. It will be interesting to see how… Read more »
Watching the NCAA Regionals this weekend. In terms of top Prospects, nothing big is jumping out at me. AJ Puk had a rough outing. Zack Collins (the Miami catcher that some believe will move to 1B) looks very good at the plate. But for the most part, status quo.
Two days out. Here’s what I think (based on my daily web browsing and applying some (hopefully) common sense):
1. Philiies – AJ Puk or Mickey Moniak
2. Reds – Nick Senzel or Kyle Lewis
3. Braves – Riley Pint
4. Rockies – Lewis/Moniak/Pint
If the Rox get any of the three I have listed above, we should all be happy. It’s hard to mess this one up.
Jason Groome will be the Draft’s big “faller.”
Delvin Perez (widely regarded as a 1st round, #5-10 OA pick), popped for PEDs;
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/06/delvin-perez-drug-test-mlb-draft.html
He’ll probably join Groome as a “faller.”
As expected, lots of late “under-slot” talk. I think it’s smokescreen BS.
All sorts of last minute stuff circulating as we’re just more than 24 hours away from the Phillies making the first selection. I continue to maintain Lewis, Moniak, and Pint in that order…..with virtually no separation between them. If we get one of these three, we should begin celebrating. I only rate Lewis first because he syncs better with our contention window. Which brings me to this……. I rate these amateur players in that order while considering the draft in… Read more »
Overnight news: Jason Groome has switched his college commitment from Vanderbilt to a JUCO in Florida. This will allow him to re-enter the draft next season if he doesn’t get exactly what he wants this season. STAY AWAY ROCKIES. MLB.com’ Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis are now projecting AJ Puk to the Rox. Of the elite 8-10 guys available this year, Puk and Groome are the two I do NOT want. Groome for signability and personal issues. Puk because as… Read more »
Lewis Pros – just visualize a young Eric Davis roaming RF for the Rockies. Nothing more needs to be said. Pint Pros – biggest velocity HS pitcher (+/- 100 MPH – consistent 95 MPH). Quirky delivery BUT by all accounts very professionally managed through his HS years. In other words, not tons of innings, not tons of summer “elite” pitching. Also, very good athlete – basketball player as well. This is a guy you sign, send him to GJ for… Read more »
I’m calling Mickey Moniak go to Rockies. If not, go Kyle Lewis. I prefer him over Pint as the odds are better that a bat works out than a pitcher. We can take pitchers later on like we did last year after taking Rodgers.
Phils take Moniak….guaranteed.
Reds Senzel – I’m 2 for 2….but the Braves are a total wildcard.
This guarantees the Rox either Lewis or Pint. Don’t screw this up Rockies.
Right on cue – Braves take Ian Anderson (I actually love this pick (see story above)).
DONT SCREW THIS UP ROCKIES. The two best players for the Rox are available (Lewis/Pint). Take one of these guys.
Good job Bridich. Good job.
Dare we dream big with the 38th pick – Wake Forest 1Bman Will Craig. He’s generally projected to go about 25th OA…..so our chances are slim. But what a fit he could be. Cross your fingers.
Craig goes to Pittsburgh at 22. Delvin Perez to St Louis at 23. I had (crazily) hoped one might fall to 38.
How big are Bridich’s cojones? Dare he pick Joey Wentz at #38. It’s risky…..but the reward could be huge.
Wow…..super interesting picks in Robert Tyler and Ben Bowden. Remember…..this is coming from a guy that likes relief pitchers and think they’re undervalued in today’s evolving game.
Tyler is a 100MPH guy that should definitely be a closer or high leverage setup guy ala’ Estevez.
Bowden is more intriguing. I can see the Rox trying to make him a SP. We’ll see.
These are both really good arms.
Couple of random thoughts here: First, a bit unusual, but Vanderbilt has already been eliminated from the NCAA Tournament (and Georgia didn’t make it). So Tyler and Bowden will be available quickly (in theory). They should be easy signs. Bowden is a guy that could start in Hartford if the Rox want him to remain on a Closer track. Of course if they want to revisit SP, I could see a very different path. Perhaps extended ST and the Arizona… Read more »
Carp, thanks for keeping us updated on all things MLB draft. I’ve been reading along but haven’t commented since I don’t really follow college baseball (much less high school!) and I’m not about to start relying on amateur stats as a substitute. So nice work! I read the scouting blurbs on Tyler and Bowden, and again, I’m not going to say “great pick” or “what is Bridich thinking?” since I just don’t know enough, but it does seem likely that… Read more »
Ag – I feel like I really nailed the first 10 picks (more or less), but had I written what I thought would happen for the remainder of round #1, I would have looked like an idiot. For whatever reason, teams stayed away from the college pitchers. I think the whole “under slot” strategy was bigger than even I projected.
I feel certain the Rox considered Joey Wentz at #38 and just couldn’t come to grips with the uncertainties of him signing. So if this in fact the case – they made the correct decision IMO. It’s interesting. We’re paying Motte and Qualls something north of 10M (combined) this year and next. We’re paying Logan north of 6M this year. In Tyler and Bowden, it feels like we drafted one of Qualls/Motte (Tyler) and Logan (Bowden) and we’ll pay them… Read more »
I would have thought that the Rockies would have had the best chance of signing Wentz since Riley Pint is his best friend. Harold Reynolds has projected Bowden as having the best chance to be in the majors this year as a relief pitcher. Of course that was before the Rockies drafted him. It really isn’t the Rockies modus operandi to bring up a player they just drafted.
Bowden reminds me a lot of Brandon Finnegan. If you’ll recall, the Royals drafted Finnegan in 14. They did indeed bring him up that season – used him in their BP for the playoff run. Subsequently, he was dealt to the Reds as the centerpiece of the Cueto deal. The Reds have converted him to a SP and so far he’s doing fairly well. The Braves had a couple million more in their initial bonus pool than the Rox…..then went… Read more »
From what I’ve seen, they plan to stick with Bowden as a reliever and the righty as a starter. Bowden sounds more like a Rex Brothers type to me, an idea which probably sends shivers down the spines of Rockies fans, but it really shouldn’t — Brothers was pitching at Coors 2 years after he was drafted, and striking out 13 per 9 innings. For a brief moment there he looked like the closer we’ve still never had. He never… Read more »
Ag – I went through the $$$$ logic 3 comments above. Agree with you 100%. I have to say I became really worried in the final 48 hours prior to the draft when it was becoming clear that the Phils were going to take Moniak instead of Puk. I rated Moniak/Lewis/Pint essentially as equals for the Rockies. But Puk……has components of Brothers and Matzek. We didn’t need another head case (sorry, not meant to be offensive, so please don’t take… Read more »