2017 Is Here!

This is volume II of the Hot Stove thread started by sdcarp.  A review of what has happened so far:

Bud Black hired as new manager; coaching staff named.

Ian Desmond biggest signing so far and supposedly will play first base.

CarGo and Chuck_Nazty has been dangled as baits but no takers yet that meet JB’s demands.

Jose Quintana will be traded, but to whom?  Rockies are rumored to be in on it with a trio of prospects (anyone’s guess which ones)

Mike Dunn is the biggest bullpen addition; mixed reviews by RWOers.

I turned in my ballot for the Purp30 list on Purple Row and here’s my list:

1. Brendan Rodgers – Will always be there until he gets knocked off my list.
2. Jeff Hoffman – He is following Jon Gray-like path.
3. Riley Pint
4. Raimel Tapia – #71 on MLB.com top 100 prospect list
5. German Marquez – #100 on MLB.com top 100 prospect list
6. Ryan McMahon – I’m still high on him as he is still young for league level.
7. Ryan Castellani – best pitcher closer to majors other than Hoffman and Marquez.
8. Tom Murphy – he can hit in the majors; his last appearance here on the Purp30
9. Kyle Freeland
10. Forrest Wall
11. Jairo Diaz – the forgotten man; by mid-summer he will re-establish his 60 grade fastball
12. Colton Welker
13. Yency Almonte
14. Dan Montano
15. Dom Nunez
16. Tyler Nevin
17. Peter Lambert
18. Sam Howard
19. Antonio Senzatela
20. Jordan Patterson
21. Willie Abreu
22. Ben Bowden
23. Robert Tyler
24. Mike Nikorak
25. Harrison Musgrave
26. Parker French – love his low, low BB/9 rate
27. Jack Wynkoop – I will always have a soft spot for him; all he does is pitch, pitch while keeping the team in the game
28. Rayon Gonzalez – I saw one AFL game on MLBN and he throws a mean 12-6 hook
29. David Hill
30. Breiling Eusebio

31. Garret Hampson
32. Pedro Gonzalez
33. David Hill
34. Javier Medina
35. Sam Moll
36. Brian Mundell
37. Jerry Vasto
38. Corelle Prime
39. Wander Cabrera
40. Luis Noguera

Posted by Rocky Mountain High on Dec 26, 2016 | 11:58 AM
The 2017 roster will look more or less like this:
Rotation – Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson, Tyler Chatwood, Chad Bettis, and Jeff Hoffman (or whoever wins the #5 spot in ST)
Bullpen – Chris Rusin, Jordan Lyles, Mike Dunn, Carlos Estevez, Zero, Jason Motte, Chad Qualls (or somebody forces Rox to DFA Qualls), Jairo Diaz (mid season), Miguel Castro
OF – CarGo, Blackmon, Dahl, Parra
IF – Desmond, DJLM, Story, Arenado, Patterson?, Adames? (or signee like a Stephen Drew)
C – Wolters and Murphy
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sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
3 years ago

Thanks RMH – the Hot Stove thread was getting too long.

My Mom always told me “if you can’t say something nice, say nothing.” So….no comment from me on Alexi Amarista (yet. I was sort f notorious for not listening to my Mom).

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
3 years ago

To me, these last two signings (Dunn and Amarista) indicate we’re stuck in neutral, at best. Dunn replaces Boone Logan. Keep in mind, even though Logan sucked in 14 and 15, he was basically the lone bright spot from the Pen in 16. So Dunn will be doing well to match Logan’s 16 performance. Amarista will essentially replace either Delcalso gone) or Adames (or some combination of both). Historically, he’s not as good as Delcalso (ouch). He’s probably better than… Read more »

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
3 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

I guess the biggest head scratcher to me is not the signing as much as it being a Major League (40 man roster spot) vs. Minor League with invite to Major League camp at Spring Training (not currently requiring 40 man spot).

mucs10
mucs10
3 years ago

RMH, I didn’t see Jake McGee on this 2017 bullpen roster. I am sure he is still on the team. Unless, of course, you feel like they will include him in some future trade. If you add him who do your then remove from your list?

sdcarp
sdcarp
3 years ago

RMH – Cargo is minimally valuable for several reasons. First…..he’s just not that good (sorry Rockies fans – he’s only about a 2 WAR player). Second….he’s expensive (20M – keep in mind very rough rule of thumb 1 WAR = 8M – so his true break even value is more like 16M). Third – there are plenty of corner OFer’s/DH types available in the market. IMO – the only true match for Cargo is Baltimore, and only if they lose… Read more »

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
3 years ago

Ladies and Gents – Happy New Year! The Hot Stove typically turns cold over the Holidays – this year has been no different. So expect a January flurry of activity beginning tomorrow. There’s a small flotilla of 1B types available. Napoli (likely to Rangers), Trumbo, Carter, Morrison, Lind, Reynolds, Alvarez, etc. Jose Bautista has to figure out what to do. Looks as though the Twins are on the verge of trading Dozier. The White Sox got off to a screaming… Read more »

Pooter
Pooter
3 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

Why do the Rockies need to trade an outfielder? Why so quick to unload Carlos Gonzales from a team that has playoff aspirations? I have fallen in love with the idea of adding Holland and Carter/Trumbo, not dealing an outfielder and having Desmond serve as a super utility guy giving CF, LF, RF, SS, 2B, and 1B days off to avoid high altitude wear and tear. If Desmond does end up being the primary 1B then that is fine with… Read more »

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
3 years ago
Reply to  Pooter

We’ll just have to agree to disagree on our Cargo assessment.

Bob K.
Bob K.
3 years ago

Speculation on what Arenado should get in arbitration.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/arbitration-breakdown-nolan-arenado-2.html

Bob K.
Bob K.
3 years ago
sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
3 years ago

Please, please, please don’t extend Cargo. Here’s a well written article explaining why:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/should-the-rockies-again-invest-in-cargo/

Bob K.
Bob K.
3 years ago
Bob K.
Bob K.
3 years ago

Arenado signs $29.5MM 2 year deal to avoid arbitration. Blackmon and Chatwood are still unsigned.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/rockies-nolan-arenado-agree-to-two-year-deal.html

sdcarp
sdcarp
3 years ago
Reply to  Bob K.

Wow – not sure what to make of this. All-in-all, seems like a really good deal for the Rockies. Also seems like NoDo is giving the Rox a little wiggle payroll wiggle room for 2017 by deferring some of his salary to 18.

Bob K.
Bob K.
3 years ago
sdcarp
sdcarp
3 years ago
Reply to  Bob K.

Both of these come in ever so slightly under projections. Arenado defers some money to next season. Desmond and Dunn’s contracts were “light” on 2017. There is definitely a collective effort to defer money away from 2017. The players (and their Agents) are buying into it. Obviously the bulk of this is necessitated by the final Reyes year (22M in 17). But I’m holding out hope there’s still room to take on one more significant contract. Either Holland in the… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
3 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

I find the NoDo and DJLM 2-year deals extremely intriguing (and Otto’s deal sort of falls into this category as well). From Otto’s standpoint, coming off TJ, I get it. From DJLM’s standpoint as not yet an established (and borderline star) player coming into 2015, I also get it. NoDo though……he seemingly really did the team a favor. When I look at these deals from the Rockies standpoint, I’m about 90% onboard with the concept. It certainly leaves the Club… Read more »

Bob K.
Bob K.
3 years ago

Amarista signing is now official. I assume the signing was as a favor to Bud Black but it is a signing that does not inspire confidence in upper management. In my opinion there was no reason to waste a 40 man spot on him. As a minor league signing with an invite to spring training it would have made some sense but not as a major league signing.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/rockies-to-sign-alexi-amarista.html

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
3 years ago
Reply to  Bob K.

Agree regarding minor league contract (similar to what was given Denorfia). Those are “no risk.” I see the Amarista signing being similar to the Dunn signing. It’s another “push.” Dunn replaces Logan. Amarista replaces Descalso. Amarista has less power than Descalso, but runs better. He IS a bit cheaper than Descalso. I think we’re in a holding pattern, waiting for Greg Holland. If he chooses the Rockies, I think were otherwise done for the 2016/17 Hot Stove. If he goes… Read more »

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
3 years ago

RMH – I think you can make a really, really strong case for the best “realistic” (meaning considering the Monfort factor and allegiance to declining older players) offensive team the Rox can assemble (given where we are now, 1/18/17) is to sign Chris Carter, unload Geraldo Parra, and make Ian Desmond the roving Ben Zobrist super-sub who’s in the lineup 6 days a week. There’s a guy on Purple Row that keeps a meticulous spreadsheet of Rox salary commitments for… Read more »

Bob K.
Bob K.
3 years ago

No more Modesto Nuts. We now have the Lancaster JetHawks located in Lancaster, CA.

http://rockiesroster.com/minors/jethawks/

Agbayani
Agbayani
3 years ago

No other way for me to say it – assuming no other major moves, an incredibly disappointing offseason. Early projections like this one – http://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml – have us in 4th place in the NL West, at … 72 wins. 6 games behind the 3rd place Dbacks. Now, I do think that’s overly pessimistic. A lot of the Rox expected value comes from young players and/or players we think (Bettis/Chatwood) have emerged as at least average starters. But the disappointment comes… Read more »

Bob K.
Bob K.
3 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

I saw a different projection with the Rockies and Diamondbacks projected to finish tied with 78 wins each. The only reason I can think of for signing Amarista was as a favor to Bud Black. I do however remember times when he looked really good against the Rockies. His career stats do not look promising. I really like Wolters but expect Murphy to get the bulk of the catching opportunities. I believe that Wolters can handle playing infrequently better than… Read more »

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
3 years ago
Reply to  Bob K.

2017 Projections: Seems like most of the team Projections rely almost solely on the algorithms used for player projects – and then simply adding up the individual projections. sdcarp’ s super simplistic logic: 2016 – 75 wins – fact. 2016 – relatively injury free, at least with key players – fact. 2016 – WW, 2017 Bud Black – should be a nice plus – fact. Old guys tend to regress – fact (Cargo). “Career Year” is singular – Chuck Natzy,… Read more »

Bob K.
Bob K.
3 years ago

The Rockies first pick in the 2017 draft will be the 42 pick.

http://m.mlb.com/draft/2017/order

Bob K.
Bob K.
3 years ago

Sad day in the Dominican Republic. Yordano Ventura died in a car crash.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/yordano-ventura-dies-in-car-crash.html

Andy Marte also died in a different car crash.

Agbayani
Agbayani
3 years ago

Bob K., you’re right – fangraphs (for one) has a 78 win projection for the Rockies. Likewise, Carp is right: all of the projection systems are basically aggregations of individual player performance projections, so a lot depends on final roster construction/playing time (including estimated time for those injured last year), etc. So why is fangraphs (I think these are the Steamer system) 6 games better than Davenport? They’re both really well thought out, so why the divergence? Well, a lot… Read more »

Bob K.
Bob K.
3 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

I also would love to see the Rockies move Parra for anything they can get for him. Just my opinion but I believe that Walt Weiss for personally responsible for at least 10 losses last year because of his moves during the game whether it be his inept handling of the pitchers or his idiotic pulling of starting position players with a lead to lose the game later. I have to believe that Bud Black as a manager will have… Read more »

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
3 years ago
Reply to  Bob K.

Parra is owed roughly 20M over the next 2 seasons. He’ll be my 2017 “Sunk Cost” poster child. We’ll need to eat 15M to get rid of him. We should do that….and not ask for anything significant in return. We’ll “save” 5M and be a better team.

Doc
Doc
3 years ago

Giants just signed Nick Hundley for 1 year at 2M.

Agbayani
Agbayani
3 years ago

Mark Reynolds isn’t signed yet, and right now that may be the best option for the Rockies. As I mentioned, who’s the RH bat off the bench? Answer: there isn’t one, unless it’s Stephen Cardullo (fun story, but really) or Murphy when he isn’t catching. I still hold out a little hope for a late Chris Carter signing, which would free up Desmond to start roaming the diamond a bit, particularly against lefties, making the overall batting order stronger. Bullpen:… Read more »

Bob K.
Bob K.
3 years ago

Rockies to sign Greg Holland to one year deal with a vesting option for a second year.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/rockies-to-sign-greg-holland.html

Wonder who will get DFAed to make room on the 40 man roster or will they just wait until they can move someone to the 60 day DL before announcing the signing.

Bob K.
Bob K.
3 years ago

The deal is for a guaranteed $7MM with performance bonuses allowing it to get as high as $14MM.

EdtheUmp
EdtheUmp
3 years ago

MLB Network’s Billy Ripken just said, “mark my words, Rockies will be one of the two wildcards in 2017.”

lwesche
lwesche
3 years ago
Reply to  EdtheUmp

Agree!

lwesche
lwesche
3 years ago

Opps…..posted on Volume 1! But am excited first game is one month from today!!

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
3 years ago

I was in the Black Forest Bermuda Triangle today (somewhere between Parker/Castle Rock/Colorado Springs – that’s a weird shaped triangle, huh?) when I got a text from RMH saying “Holland.” Thanks RMH. This is a risk the Rox absolutely, positively have to take. It IS a risk. A big risk. But it’s the only way we get a pitcher with this type of upside to come here as a FA. Honestly, the contract is much more team friendly than what… Read more »

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
3 years ago

A little Greg Holland back-story. I doubt the media will ever connect the dots on this. Greg Holland is from Morganton, N.C. (In western NC). He went to High School at McDowell HS in Marion NC. He then went to Western Carolina University in Cullowhee, NC (extreme western NC – almost TN/GA/NC border). Madison Bumgarner went to South Caldwell HS in Hudson, NC (also in western NC – same HS Conference as Holland at McDowell). They just missed overlapping. Rockies… Read more »

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
3 years ago

File under the category “Very Interesting:”

I saw numerous photos yesterday of Bud Black, Tom Murphy, Jon Gray, and Carlos Estevez in the Monfort’s private plane jetting around to GJ, SLC, and Laramie for caravan stops. Black bonding with 3 of the young studs. All battery mates. Think that’s a coincidence? I think not.

Bob K.
Bob K.
3 years ago

Sports Illustrated gives Rockies a D+ for their off season.

http://www.si.com/mlb/2017/01/25/winter-report-card-colorado-rockies

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
3 years ago
Reply to  Bob K.

I can sort of get D+ before the Holland signing. But in my mind, he takes it to a C+. If we sign a 1st baseman that frees Desmond, we go to B+.

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
3 years ago

My favorite website is at it again: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/its-time-for-the-rockies-to-innovate/ Earlier this offseason, I was mildly perplexed when the Rox tendered Jordan Lyles. I’ve been mildly surprised they haven’t (successfully) tried to trade Eddie Butler. I’ve also read some speculation that Hoffman and Freeland could be considered for service out of the Pen (as an old Earl Weaver fan….I have no issues with this). Where I’m going is here……it seems like the Rox are gearing up towards lightening the load on SPers… Read more »

Agbayani
Agbayani
3 years ago

I really like the Holland signing. It’s a good chunk of change for a guy who isn’t guaranteed to be back to health (or to last a full season), but at least he’s a really high upside guy. So I agree with Carp – that raises the Rockies offseason report card to the low middling range. And excellent point too about the 10 day DL. This is a rule made for the Rockies! They can shuttle pitchers between the DL/rehab… Read more »

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
3 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

Of course “options” are the practical roadblock to my suspected DL shuffle. You’re right, the retirement home half of our Pen certainly won’t have options remaining. So if we see guys like Motte and Qualls show some semblance of health and decent form in ST, I predict they’ll begin he season on the 25 man roster until they become injured (wink, wink). Then the Estevez/Castro/Oberg etc daycare half of our Pen will arrive.

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
3 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

One more comment Ag – mostly just to be a contrarian – my prediction is Jake McGee will bounce back ala Boone Logan last season. So let’s get into the “ifs” while being somewhat reasonable. If Otto is fully recovered from TJ (likely), McGee bounces back to decent form (somewhat likely), Holland is good from June-September (somewhat likely), Dunn fills the 2016 version of Boone Logan’s role (somewhat likely), one of the young pups (Estevez/Castro/Oberg/Moll/etc) emerge (I’m saying likely simply… Read more »

Bob K.
Bob K.
3 years ago

Eddie Butler no options Miguel Castro 1 option Jairo Diaz 2 options Mike Dunn no options Carlos Estevez 2 options Jordan Lyles no options Jake McGee no options Jason Motte 2X options* Scott Oberg 1 option Adam Ottavino 1X option* Chad Qualls 3X options* Chris Rusin no options *I believ the X means that the player has to give his consent to be sent to the minors. Holland was not included because his signing has not been officially announced so… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
3 years ago
Reply to  Bob K.

Bob K – great info. There was a spirited debate on Purple Row regarding EButts and options. Some think that because of some obscure rule and/or circumstance – he may have one remaining. I look down that list and Lyles and Rusin (and maybe Butler) will be fighting to for Rockies’ careers in ST. If more than one of those three look good in ST, we could see a late ST trade where they get shipped out for a minor… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
3 years ago

RMH and other “powers that be” – we should leave the Hot Stove thread open for another 2 weeks (we still have one move remaining) – then start a 2017 Spring Training thread. Then in mid-March, begin the world famous 2017 Predictions thread.

Bob K.
Bob K.
3 years ago

Because of the official announcement of the signing of Holland, the Rockies have DFAed Eddie Butler.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/rockies-designate-eddie-butler-for-assignment.html

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
3 years ago
Reply to  Bob K.

Damn Bob….we were just discussing options and BOOM, this happens. I wrote this on PR regarding Butler: “In my feeble mind, he was destined to compete with Rusin and Lyles for a long spot in the Pen. All three have pluses and minuses. As noted above, if you look past Butler’s Prospect status a couple of years ago, they all three rate about equal. But, Butler has the most pedigree. So there’s a good chance Bridich will get to go… Read more »

Agbayani
Agbayani
3 years ago

Bob K, thanks for the options report. And it explains why they had to pull the plug on Butler, as well as explaining why they gave him ample opportunity last year. Too bad. I think there’s a reasonable chance he establishes himself somewhere else. Carp, on McGee: I admire your baseball acumen, but I can’t agree on that one. Logan was the classic bounceback candidate last year. In his 3 Rockies years he always had a K/9 rate of about… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
3 years ago

Ag – I agree 100% regarding statistics. I’m staking my hunch on him not being fully recovered from his 2015 knee issues in 2016, and that impacting his mechanics.

FWIW – I’m just playing a hunch. No inside info.

Agbayani
Agbayani
3 years ago

What Bridich may be thinking: consider this my first installment in my “Planet Alignment Theory 2017.” – we all know the Rox went 75-87 last year. But their pythagorean record (based on run differential): 80-82. Pythagorean records have better correlation to the following season than true W-L records. What explains the differential? Well, sometimes it’s bad luck, but maybe a good part of it is atrocious bullpen performance (losing too many close games) and poor late-game decision making. So improve… Read more »

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
3 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

Dude – you’re psychic. I was going to request at 86 win PAT. To me, that is the realistically optimistic top end of our potential in 2017 (it’s not necessarily my prediction mind you……I need to see half of ST before I do that). I agree with your comment regarding offensive regression. Blackmon and DJ have to come out of orbit – at least a bit, don’t they? Cargo is steadily regressing. On the flip side there is NoDo, Dahl’s… Read more »

Bob K.
Bob K.
3 years ago

Something else to consider. Last year the Rockies had a winning record against teams with a winning record. Unfortunately they had a losing record against teams with losing records. They had a manager who in my opinion created at least 10 losses out of what appeared to be games they should have won. They now have a manager who in the past has shown the ability to win games that should have been lost. If the new manager can keep… Read more »

Bob K.
Bob K.
3 years ago

Yesterday MLBNetwork released their top 100 prospects list with5 Rockies on it.

15 – Brendan Rodgers
44 – Jeff Hoffman
51 – Riley Pint
73 – German Marquez
90 – Raimel Tapia

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
3 years ago
Reply to  Bob K.

The ascent of German Marquez from about the 15th rated player in the Rays system to #73 overall is remarkable.

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