Started a non-Rox Hot Stove thread last week. Lets create a Rox related Hot Stove thread also.
Loved reading the comments from everyone over the weekend. I think Bob (I believe it was Bob) said it best when he pointed out the old baseball adage that everyone wins 54, loses 54, and it’s how you do in the remaining 54 that makes (or breaks) your season. 12-42 for the mighty Rox. I call that broken.
My thoughts are well documented. Entire Front Office should be blown up and re-started from scratch. I’m leaning towards thinking Weiss isn’t a good major league manager, but a new GM should ultimately make that decision and pick the replacement.
Have at it guys (and girls)!
FWIW – I follow Jon Heyman on Twitter. Heyman is a writer for CBS – I believe he’s New York based, and seems to be a Mets guy (although I don’t know this for sure). Anyway – yesterday there was a brief exchange between him and several presumed Mets fans about Sandy Alderson (Mets GM) being spotted in Denver this weekend. Jeff Wilpon is also in CO – but supposedly with family on a ski trip. I like to say… Read more »
I feel like I’ve become to voice of doom and gloom recently – so here’s something that I found this AM that may provide some hope. From Dick Bergstrom’s article on ESPN.com (free article – so I’ll cut and paste the highlight): “The Rockies weren’t really as bad as your typical 66-96 team. As Dave Cameron at FanGraphs noted, based on their expected record by BaseRuns (the number of runs a team should have scored or allowed based on its… Read more »
For once I’m glad to hear a boom and bloom comment from you. 🙂
LOL – RMH – you have absolutely no reason to believe this based on my comments here, but I’m typically a “glass is half-full” type of guy.
You know what they say: “An optimist says the glass is half full, the pessimist says the glass is half empty. The engineer says the glass is twice the size it needs to be.”
Bob – FWIW I’m an Engineer. Structural Engineer. Driven by logic (to the extreme). Taught to analyze every possible failure mode. That may explain some things………..
sdcarp – I’m a mining engineer.
I still believe they are only 2 pitchers away. Either 2 need to step up or they need 2 good pitchers. And I’m not talking just an innings eater run of the mill type guy.
They are going to have to win a minimum of 85 games to even think about being in it.
I assume you mean two SP (and I agree) – and I would also add a Closer. To me, the Closer part of the equation is relatively easy (on paper). There are several available – and signing the right Closer shifts everyone else in the Pen into a better role. It’s the two impact SPer that’s the (really) hard part of the equation (and I agree – they need to be “impact” guys). Two major impact FA guys remain (Scherzer… Read more »
Say it’s not true – could this be the 2nd piece of good news in a single day?
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/sergio-santos-nearing-minor-league-deal-with-nl-west-club.html
Santos had ridiculous stuff before being derailed via various injuries. I clearly remember his half-season as the White Sox Closer. Filthy. Whomever is getting him on a minor league deal has taken a great low risk, high reward chance.
Not the Rockies, article was updated to say he probably will go to Dodgers.
Now we’re missing on “Project” long shots like Brandon Morrow and Sergio Santos.
It should also be noted the Padres traded for Shawn Kelley today. He’s a solid setup guy.
Gosh darn it Ag – FanGraphs is also “pleasant” on the Rockies:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-team-projections-and-you-national-league/
carp, I saw that in fangraphs. NL West standings based on the “Steamer” projection system: Dodgers 91 wins Giants 83 (a huge 9-game discrepancy with Davenport … I’m starting to think Davenport’s math is off a bit here since some of his individual Giants players projections look too good to result in only 74 wins? I’ll be watching to see if he revises his team projections) Padres, Rockies 78 Dbacks 74 What explains that? Well for one thing, Davenport assumes… Read more »
The projection system that Baseball Prospectus uses (I believe it’s called PECOTA) is brutal – especially to those that are injury prone (at least that’s been my experience with it). So it will be interesting to see what they come up with it. I’m a fan of the projection algorithms – but it also humors me a bit that so much time and effort is spent building these things and yet they’re all fundamentally flawed if the projected number of… Read more »
And sdcarp, remember the value of these projection systems to Rockies management and publicists. Every offseason they get to extrapolate those Tulo and Cargo numbers out to 162 games and say, “see, if we stay healthy we’ll be competitive.” No indication of the probability of that actually happening, no incentive to trade one or both in order to, you know, not be completely dependent on remarkably healthy seasons from two remarkably unhealthy cornerstones of your entire strategy for winning …
Yep.
Seems to me like a simple linear regression of the players PAs per season with an added age factor (maybe at 27 years old, factor is 1.0, 28=.95, 29=.90, etc…) could be used to predict AB’s. In fact, this takes 5 minutes in Excel. 2007 – 682 PAs 2008 – 421 2009 – 628 2010 – 529 2011 – 606 2012 – 203 2013 – 512 2014 – 375 2015 – ??? Depending on exactly what type regression used –… Read more »
Interesting thing here is if you take out 2012 – the linear regression still predicts barely over 400 PAs for 2015.
The Padres do yet another trade and trade Seth Smith for a reliever.
Can someone check if our new GM still has a pulse?
Why not just keep O’Dowd and tell him not to make any transactions? I really can’t believe we’ve done zero, especially on the starting pitching side.
Ag – I seem to recall some stories that circulated immediately after DOD stepped down that Monfart did indeed want DOD to remain. At the time (being the logic driven person that I am) dismissed those stories as nonsense. But in hindsight – my guess is DOD knew Monfart would double-down on the “stand pat” strategy – and he knew this strategy was wrong.
Maybe now some will understand while O’Dowd was an easy target and scapegoat he was definitely not the biggest problem. I’m not suggesting he was free from any ownership of the *stuff* going but he may not have had much say with some. While he may be gone now it’s not because the Monfort’s wanted him to go. If you caught his on air time during the meetings you could pick up on his feelings. Especially when he and Hurdle… Read more »
Wow – I thought Preller’s first couple of moves were bold but a bit haphazard. But I love the pickups of Kelley, Morrow, and Mauer……and let’s face it, Smith was totally expendable with the OFers they’ve picked up. One of Morrow/Mauer will likely be a 5th starter, the other in the Pen. I like both of those guys in the Pen. I think Morrow may yet again Close.
The parade of stars continues.
First – Descalso
Second – Roger Bernandino
Now – Nick Hundley
This is just getting laughable. Nick Hundley? Note to new GM: the idea is to actually improve your team in the offseason, not make it worse. (Yes, I understand the plan is probably to move Rosario now, but still, how does 6 million bucks to Nick Hundley accomplish that regardless of what you do with Rosario?) STEAMER projections for C and 2B (the two positions we’ve effectively downgraded so far) Rosario 108 RC+ (100 is an average hitter; yes, it… Read more »
With an already full 40 man roster, who is going to get DFAed and given away for nothing?
I won’t criticize this deal until I see who we get for Rosario. If we get a useful player back for Rosario (presumably a starter or a reliever), then the deal may net out well overall. Also, the hope is that by the time that his contract is over, one or more catchers from our minor league system will be ready to take over the job. Hopefully, in the meantime Hundley is an experienced catcher who can work with all… Read more »
AL teams that at first glance could use some Catching help: CWS Det Tampa (they could use help at 1B also – James Looney) Texas maybe Seattle at C, and maybe at 1B also (Logan Morrison) believe it or not – maybe Oakland, the team that used to have and endless supply of C LAAofA Out of that group – who has a SP surplus? Maybe Detroit – pending Scherzer. Maybe LAA pending Garrett Richards recovery. Tampa, Texas, and Seattle… Read more »
In my opinion it is so dumb to give up on Rosario. He has bounce back written all over him in 2015. Have someone working with him on defensive skills in the offseason!!
^^^Not impressed.
Mark Townsend of Yahoo Sports thoughts on the Rockies.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/rockies-remain-afterthoughts-in-refocused-nl-west-004905117.html
Thanks for the link. As Ag notes below – this guy is spot-on.
Bob K., thanks for the link – short ‘n’ sweet summary, and it deserves a quote: “We’ve seen the answer for five years running, and we saw it again on Wednesday. He’ll [Bridich] be stuck operating within the same pattern, signing guys like Hundley and Daniel Descalso, who received a similar two-year deal in early December, as stopgaps and roster filler. Next, he’ll look to trade a young veteran the organization has soured on. Three years ago it was Chris… Read more »
*sigh*
Remember Chin-Hui Tsao? Weirdest news of the offseason: http://deadspin.com/report-dodgers-to-sign-taiwanese-pitcher-who-was-banne-1676555849 He was banned by Taiwanese baseball based on allegations of fixing games. “The 33-year-old had accepted “unsuitable benefits,” including sex, from gamblers and had agreed to throw two CPBL games, CPBL deputy secretary-general Wang Hui-min (王惠明) told local media.” He hasn’t pitched in years. The Dodgers are signing him to a minor league contract! (I imagine it’s just to encourage interest in the Dodgers as Taiwan’s Team.) In some alternative universe… Read more »
Saw J.Grilli signed for a mere 2.5 mil.Couldn’t he have helped our BP?
Gary said: “Saw J.Grilli signed for a mere 2.5 mil.Couldn’t he have helped our BP?” Apparently not as much as Daniel Descalso can help our troublesome utility infielding issues!
Good stuff on Tsao and Grilli. Grilli has been tremendous the last 3-4 years, and has experience Closing.
Again it makes too much sense considering the new GM professes to be looking to upgrade BP.I liked Grilli when he was here the first time and even with some issues last year still would have been a good Belisle replacement for less than we paid Matty B.last season.
A- time for this thread to be split.
B- you people are a bunch of blue haired whinny grandmas
ok I’ll bite. Whinny – absolutely. Blue haired – nope, sorry.
Maybe you could explain in what context your B is directed to?
Hey – I resemble the whiney part! Only partial blue hair.
I’m a GRAY-haired grandma (and I am really trying not to whine…or whinny, as I am definitely not a horse).
I apologize for this post. I should learn when to step away from the computer.
Apology not accepted Ike – keep posting! Love it. I’m happy to own my whinny posts and hope like hell I’ll be proven wrong.
GUYS,Here is the problem.There is no game plan. There is no organization in place that knows how to build a winning team or how to evaluate talent. Instead of going out and hiring a number 2 guy from a winning organization like sf, det, st. Louis, etc they hired a.guy who sat with odowd. what did he learn about building a winning organization? That is the real problem! No blueprint or understanding on how to build a winner. The three… Read more »
I disagree. I have come to believe this is the problem, from Bob Ks link above How can the Rockies truly move forward when ownership is so resistant to ruffling feathers or making real changes? The answer: They can’t. New general manager Jeff Bridich may have different ideas and more of a willingness to do “what’s right.” He’s at least convinced ownership to listen on trade offers for Tulowitzki and Gonzalez, which feels like a minor miracle. But how much… Read more »
WARNING!! NEGATIVE POST
There is a game plan, Harry; same one they’ve been perfecting–shuffle the deckchairs, do the promos, everyone smile and party on. Who gives a crap about competing and winning baseball when we have our 4-A team and the marvelous ambiance of Coors Field?
Don’t Dump Rosario! OK, this is the time of the offseason where I start grasping at straws, looking for something that rationalizes the GM’s strange approach. So I’m going to look at this in the best possible (and admittedly somewhat unrealistic) light: Let’s say Morneau repeats his 2014 rebound performance, and Rosario performs exactly according to his career (3 year unweighted) averages. And let’s say Rosario can be about an average first baseman defensively (what do I know? But he… Read more »
Two things here: 1. This isn’t backed by any scientific research, but it seems entirely plausible to me that a Catcher “should” become an average defensive first baseman – even a below average defensive catcher. They (catchers) should be able to scoop throws in the dirt and also have quick first step type reflexes (don’t confuse this with speed). So I agree with your defensive baseline assumption. 2. I also agree that he’s darn near worthless in a trade at… Read more »
carp, actually I think there has been some research confirming the old Bill James defensive spectrum theory — that is, that positions get progressively harder as you move to the right: 1B, LF, RF, 3B, CF, 2B, SS, C Which is why position moves to the left of the spectrum are generally successful; the other direction, rarely so. Now catchers are kind of a special case, but lots and lots of them make the move all the way across the… Read more »