Can Guthrie replace Ubaldo as the Rockies ace?

At first glance this seems like a just bit too much to ask from the Rockies latest addition, however I did some research looking at both the 2011 seasons as well as the 2012 projections for these two right handed starters, and without citing all the details here – I can tell you the differences in games, innings, ERAs, K/BB%, etc are not as significant as you might expect.

Along with Chacin, Pomeranz, Nicasio and Outman/DLR that starting five is beginning to look pretty good and could even be a pleasant surpise by the middle of the season. So in theory DanO’s plan is to have that new starting rotation and star/prospect/veteran lineup in place by opening day of the 2013 season. If somehow the Rockies should make a run in 2012, it just means that the “new” master plan has come together a little sooner than DanO might have reasonably expected.

It’s almost spring so it’s ok to error on the optimistic side – right?

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jaredean
jaredean
8 years ago

That isn’t good news…It isn’t the 2011 version of Ubaldo that we want in Guthrie, it is the 2010 Pre-All-Star Ubaldo we want back. The 2011 version went, what, 0 – 6 at the beginning of the season? After the trade I tried to watch all of the Indian’s games he started and although I saw brief glimpses of his 2010 pitching, it wasn’t what i’d call unhittable…we all know he has wicked stuff when he gets into a focused… Read more »

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
8 years ago

So the real question (I think) is – are Guthrie, Chacin, Pomeranz, Nicasio, Outman/Chatwood (2012 rotation) better than the 2011 Ubaldo, DLR, Cook, Hammel, Rogers???

Well – 2011 Ubaldo sucked. 2011 DLR was injured. 2011 Cook really sucked. 2011 Hammel was mediocre at best. 2011 Rogers sucked.

So there’s a REALLY good chance the 2012 group will be better than 2011. But as Jaredean points out, that’s a very low bar.

Mike Raysfan
Mike Raysfan
8 years ago

Throw out 2011 for Guthrie. If he pitches the same here as he did for the Orioles in 2011 it will be a disaster. Forget trying to compare pitchers. New team. New league. I think he will be a solid starter. The only thing that worries me is the HR ball. One other thing to keep in mind. JT has said he has NO clue what the starting rotation will be. He is going to ST with a clean sheet… Read more »

Agbayani
Agbayani
8 years ago

Yep, they don’t need to do much to do better than 2011’s starters. Guthrie is definitely a flyball pitcher, and yes, I’d prefer a similarly talented groundballer. But in the earlier thread I said I’d look into this. I don’t lie to you guys — I did: HRs per outfield flyball (that is, eliminating pop-ups since they can’t become home runs), from a great hardballtimes article (4 year weighted averages): Yankees New Yankee Stadium 120 Reds Great American Ballpark 116… Read more »

rockymountainhigh
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rockymountainhigh
8 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

when you have Dex and CarGo in the left 2/3 of the outfield it reduces the hitters advantage significantly.

GARY
GARY
8 years ago

If memory serves[and I am a senior citizen],the ROX haven’t made it out of ST WITH OUT INJURY TO ONE OR MORE OF THE PROJECTED STARTERS!I think that’s a bigger wild card than trying to handicap who will be the best five.In a perfect world everyone stays healthy,shows good stuff,and makes for great conversations here,and really tough decisions for the brain trust.

Agbayani
Agbayani
8 years ago

Gary, you’re right. I’m seeing a lot of folks say we have really good starting pitching depth now. I couldn’t disagree more. We have lots of failed (Rogers) and unproven (White, Chatwood) starters to turn to, but that’s not what I call depth. Those guys are emergency starters only at this point. And even without injury it looks like Moscoso would be the 5th starter, and you know what I think of him. If everything follows the best case scenario,… Read more »

jaredean
Admin
jaredean
8 years ago

EdTheUmp wanted me to post this link. It is very interesting for those that follow the stat-based side of the game.

JEREMY GUTHRIE IS BETTER THAN YOU THINK: http://tinyurl.com/roxGuth

DrRockies
Editor
DrRockies
8 years ago
Reply to  jaredean

godo article Ed da ump! thx jardean for posting. Feel Guthrie will suprise those who want the “sexy” name star….Lets give him a chance to see what a real defense can do to improve his stats.

go Rox

DrRockies
Editor
DrRockies
8 years ago
Reply to  DrRockies

spell check comes next week for me ; )

Rich M
Rich M
8 years ago

If Guthrie can pitch at the level that he has consistently been able to over several past yeears, I still see an ace (although maybe not the 2010 Ubaldo) that is capable of 32 starts, 200 innings and 15+ wins. He is goning to have an outstanding defense and a very solid lineup if J Tracy will just stick with the starting eight a little more often.

konaman
konaman
8 years ago

Rich, I’ll bet that with JT’s tinkering ways and the age of the ballclub, he will stick with the starting 8 even less this year. This allows the younger guys to develop and rests the older guys for the end of the year for that improbable playoff push. Go Rockies!!

Bseus
Bseus
8 years ago

Gutherie should be a nice addition.But I think this is Chacins year to take the leading role..

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