I said in the Wednesday wrap that this team defies statistical analysis – but I’m still curious. I took a look at some pitching and hitting numbers just for the entertainment value.
I broke down the game logs for all pitching in wins and losses.
45 BB (3.0), 10 HBP (0.7), Str% 62.5, 105 H (7.0), 36 R (2.4), 6 HR (0.4), 34 XBH (2.2)
100 BB (4.2), 12 HBP (0.5), Str% 60.6, 262 H (10.9), 170 R (7.1), 26 HR (1.1), 101 XBH (4.2)
It’s not a surprise they are getting hit harder (almost 4 more hits a game) in losses. HRs don’t jump out, but 2 more extra-base hits per game looks significant.
I’d point out a 2% decline in strike throwing overall in the losses. That leads to 1 more free baserunner per game – and 4.7 more runs per game. I wasn’t able to find a way to break it down by W/L, but the staff is dead last in first pitch strike percentage – 57.6%. (League best is Mets, 64.2%.) It sounds like a small difference, but there seems to be a knee in the curve right around 62%.
On the offensive side, it’s not much better.
“There are three guys I’m not worried about: LeMahieu, Hundley, and Rosario.”
Note the three guys in the photo from last night. In the 5-7-8 slots, a combined 7 for 14 and 5 RBIs. The bottom half of the lineup is doing most of the damage.
What damage there is, at least. Offensive WAR leaders (Bryce Harper is a 2.9), and I wish there was one more decimal point:
Here’s the sad part: LeMahieu barely makes the top 50 NL list in oWAR.
Then, there are run expectancy and leverage, RE24 and WPA/LI (Harper is 28.65, 3.39):
LeMahieu 4.17, 0.09
McKenry 3.91, 0.21
Dickerson 1.06 , 0.26
Arenado 0.35, 0.19
Blackmon -0.49, -0.11
Hundley -2.78, -0.13
CarGo -4.61, -0.13
Tulo -6.82, -0.47
There is no Rockie in the top 50 of the NL on either stat.
Said it before and will say it again: Tulo is accumulating hits in meaningless situations, and not delivering when it matters. He may finally be getting the message. In Thursday’s contest, he singled with bases loaded, instead of trying to drive the ball out of the park and popping up somewhere. More productivity, less heroics needed – and that goes for the entire top half of the order.
Two more chances today against the Giants, assuming the tarp comes off. The first game features Charlton, no, wait, Chris Heston against Jordan Lyles. The second contest features spot starters, the renowned Rockie killer Yusmiero Petit against our 26th man David Hale. This will be Hale’s first appearance since being acquired from Atlanta; he is essentially a free call up, already on the 40-man, just for the day. Lineup for the first game below.
San Francisco Gigantes
LF: Gregor Blanco
2B: Joe Panik
CF: Angel Pagan
1B: Brandon Belt
RF: Hunter Pence
SS: Brandon Crawford
3B: Matt Duffy
C: Andrew Susac
SP: Chris Heston
CF: Charlie Blackmon
3B: Nolan Arenado
RF: Carlos Gonzalez
SS: Troy Tulowitzki
1B: Wilin Rosario
LF: Ben Paulsen
C: Nick Hundley
2B: DJ LeMahieu
SP: Jordan Lyles