In REBUILD THE ROCKIES, I outlined a methodology to rebuild the Rockies roster. The overarching objective is to make the team sustainably good. But one fire sale alone will not change the Rox culture of losing. The Rox need a holistic makeover. Time (and energy) allowing, I’ll propose several more fundamental changes that the Rockies need to consider in addition to the necessary massive roster makeover.
To date, the biggest hurdle to fielding a contending team in Denver has been starting pitching (or lack thereof). A couple of years ago I wrote a “Sound Off” article outlining the effects of altitude on the game of baseball (maybe Jaredean or another Site Administrator can locate and link that article?). But I frequently rail against using altitude as an excuse and advocate using it to our advantage. I also have to ask the question – is altitude the only reason our SP gets decimated year in and year out? Let’s look a little deeper.
First, let’s look at the Ballpark. Courtesy of The Bill James Handbook 2013:
Here are the most hitter-friendly ballparks since 2010: Park Runs Index
Rockies (Coors Field) 143
Rangers (Rangers Ballpark in Arlington) 122
Red Sox (Fenway Park) 115
White Sox (U.S. Cellular Field) 113
Diamondbacks (Chase Field) 112
Yankees (Yankee Stadium) 110
Here are the parks that have allowed the most home runs since 2010: Park Home Runs Index Rockies
(Coors Field) 138
White Sox (U.S. Cellular Field) 138
Reds (Great American Ballpark) 134
Brewers (Miller Park) 129
Yankees (Yankee Stadium) 128
Rangers (Rangers Ballpark in Arlington) 124
Here are parks that have allowed the fewest foul outs since 2010: Park Foul Outs Index Rockies
(Coors Field) 77
Red Sox (Fenway Park) 78
Angels (Angel Stadium of Anaheim) 79
Rangers (Rangers Ballpark in Arlington) 83
Cubs (Wrigley Field) 83
Giants (AT&T Park) 86
Royals (Kauffman Stadium) 86
Hmmmmmmm………..Coors allows far and away the most runs scored. No surprise. Coors allows the most triples. No surprise. But when we look at HRs, U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago allows just as many. Great American Ballpark isn’t too far behind. But here’s the one that’s really hard to swallow – Coors Field allows fewer foul outs than any other park in baseball. 23% less than a neutral park. Now I realize its pure blasphemy to talk trash about Coors and a bolt of lightning may strike me down at any moment – but this is just plain dumb. Initial design mistakes are frequently made. Fences have been moved in at Citi Field and Marlins Park, and have been moved in more than once at Petco. But to my knowledge, foul territory has never been adjusted at Coors. Someone please correct me if I’m wrong.
Eno Sarris gives foul ground a harder look in this article:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/foul-ground-home-field-advantage/
Turns out this foul out thing is not insignificant. For the 2012-2013 seasons, Oakland Stadium recorded 398 foul outs (the most). Coors (139) – the fewest. That’s a delta of a whopping 259 outs, or 130 outs per season!
In my opinion, the Rockies should give serious consideration to changing the playing field dimensions at Coors Field. This will sound crazy – but I propose moving the CF fence(s) in. That’s right, “in.” Smarter folks than I need to determine the sweet spot between the HR Index and Runs Index. But I’m guessing the HR increase caused by decreasing space in CF can be more than offset by the corresponding decrease in doubles and triples. Much more importantly, I’m proposing a foul territory increase. Enough to make Coors a foul neutral Park (23% more foul ball outs than now) at bare minimum. It would be nice if we could go even further, maybe to the 110 range.
Interestingly, decreasing the CF dimension while increasing foul territory can be accomplished (to some extent) concurrently simply by moving the field “out” a bit. It’s more complicated than this……but in the big scheme of things can be accomplished seamlessly.
The overall realistic goal should bringing the Runs Index down to the 125-130 range.
Dickie will have to sell a few more beers on the Party Deck to offset the foul territory seat loss, but he’ll get over it.
This may not seem like a big thing, but the Rox have to change the pitching paradigm at Coors if the goal is to field a sustainable contender. There will be no single, magic bullet cure. It will be an accumulation of little things. Adjusting the playing dimensions is one step.
Good article, sdc! Just some dreary Saturday daydreaming from me… In response to one of your statements, I do believe that foul territory has been adjusted once before… in order to put a few more rows of Lexus seats behind home plate and between the dugouts, which also decreased foul territory. Everyone raves at how wonderful it is to be so close to the action, but an extra 5 feet away for everyone isn’t a big deal, and it could… Read more »
Interesting stats.I too have long thought higher fences made sense.I also think rounding out center by eliminating the “stupid” left center notch cuts down the vast outfield area.If icons such as Wrigley and Fenway can make small to large changes,then 20 year old Coors should consider it too.
Good info Iggy. I don’t remember the foul territory renovation, but it would be rich with irony if that occurred under Monfart’s watch.
Also good points about fence heights. Many a hard hit line drive to left field at Fenway bounces off the Monster and becomes a long single.
It’s really not unreasonable for ballpark dimensions to evolve over the life of the Park. I’m obviously talking about small tweaks. The average fan won’t know the difference.
I believe Iggy is right — http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2013/02/11/Facilities/Rockies.aspx Elsewhere in the park, the 168-seat Coors Clubhouse, the Rockies’ version of the diamond clubs at other MLB facilities, will have new seats 23 to 24 inches wide, about 5 inches wider than the original chairs installed 10 years ago when the club was built. For better flow and to avoid having club-seat holders walk in front of others in the section, the Rockies relocated aisles to behind the seats and reduced the… Read more »
Excellent detective work Gentlemen. Definitely done under Monfart’s watch. Further proof that not only is he not committed to making the Club better, we’ll gladly make it worse if it helps line his pockets.
It was my impression that one of the reasons for moving the fence closer to home plate was because Rosario couldn’t block the pitches from going through and he actually got outs and held runners at third because of the balls ricochetting back to home plate with the closer wall.
Jorge Rondon claimed off of waivers by the Orioles.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/05/orioles-claim-jorge-rondon.html
I fully Rondon to now be good. It will be par for the course with the other pitchers who play better when they are on other teams.
Gray goes six today for the Isotopes and gives up just 3 runs. Not bad.
In a shocking development, Tulo strikes out with the bases loaded and an opportunity to blow the game wide open.
And in an earlier shocking development, Walt Weiss sticks with a pitcher who’d walked 6 out of the last 7 hitters with the Dodgers best hitter coming up, and that hitter delivers a bases-clearing double. Given that the club had played about 5 innings in the last 5 days (and has a day off tomorrow), you’d think that maybe that overworked bullpen will now be clamoring for an inning of garbage time to stay sharp …
Looks like Tulo has tuned out for the season huh?
And (probably not) finally, in a subsequent shocking development, Walt brings in the 8th man in an 8 man bullpen, Scott Oberg, in a tie game in the 7th inning, again in spite of the fact that the bullpen is actually UNDER worked of late with all the rainouts.
Perfect example when you’re losing and gone fishing now. (Hundley running while pitcher still holding ball). That reeks.
I see we’ve padded our major league lead in walks allowed today. Nice job boyz.
Now it’s getting really bad, Oberg left in to toss 8th inning?????????????? Dodgers win cuz of bad bullpen management especially WW.
Betancourt was up and warming up before the inning… DOH DUH bring out the Weiss boobirds
Note to self – grab every eligible offensive Dodger (even the bench guys) for my Fantasy team before they return to Coors again. Actually……it’s probably prudent to apply that principle in general.
More Weiss mismanagement… You’re down 4 runs, u should PH for Stubbs… Anybody that can put ball in play and hope for BABIP help… Ks don’t get any BABIP help. Time to fire WW.
You have CLAYTON KERSHAW on the ropes, up 3 runs, your putative “ace” on the mound working in tandem with the Pitcher Whisperer … and then you hand the Dodgers 3 walks, leave in DLR to groove one to Adrian Gonzalez, and you squander the lead. Then, having lost 8 in a row, coming off a day off and looking forward to another day off, with a fully fresh bullpen, you proceed to have Scott “Gopher Ball” Oberg come out… Read more »
I like the marathon analogy. 5 miles in, 30 minutes off the pace. We bought our team from Weight Watchers and we’re racing the Kenyans.
Ag, You beat me to the punch with your comment on WWs handling of the BP. It’s one thing to have a bad team, but when you couple it with a manager that’s in over his head, what you get is a losing streak of historical proportion. I would not be surprised to see this team return from this road trip in the midst of a 15 game losing streak. Why would WW not bring in Raffy to start the… Read more »
I don’t recall the Bears and Zephyrs being this consistently bad… quite the contrary, they were often quite good. I don’t recall all the excuses about the altitude affecting pitching, even while they played in the biggest bandbox of all time (Mile High). I don’t recall the whining about recovery time. All I recall is consistently decent baseball in Denver. What’s the difference? I’ll give you a clue… it’s all about a couple of guys who were born on 3rd… Read more »
Whoa, whoa, whoa. Tulo Bobblehead giveaway is June 7. He won’t be moved until after then….
If they wait until June 7, he might already be on the shelf for the season. Move him now, or eventually get a bag of peanuts for him.
Maybe they’ll spell his name wrong-this time on purpose-and call it off and trade him.
RMH – I generally agree with your thoughts regarding Walt. I didn’t like the hire from the beginning. I’m not a fan of the trend of hiring ex-players without much (or any) Managerial experience. It seems to be happening throughout sports. But I’ll pose these questions to you: 1. Do you have confidence that Monfart will hire someone better? 2. What viable candidate will want to mange this train wreck? I’ve advocated twice (prior to Jim Tracy becoming permanent Manager,… Read more »
Hire the brothers as a package.Manager + Pitching coach.
Every weakness was on display today, pitchers who can’t throw strikes (and curiously, a catcher who never called for time and a talk), a 3-pitch strikeout of the team’s “best” player in a critical AB, 5 tool players who sit on the bench when the other team’s ace takes the mound, blundering moves with game management. I don’t know who could fix the mess, and there’d likely be no helpful takers anyway. The losing mentality is so deeply ingrained into… Read more »
Woody Paige is on board!
http://www.denverpost.com/paige/ci_28085234/paige-curse-monfort-ruining-rockies
Helton to take Kelli’s vacant position is not the worst idea I’ve ever heard.
Cisco, here’s how much our “overworked pen” has actually worked in the last 7 days: Betancourt: one inning (Wednesday) Axford: 0 innings (faced 3 batters on Wednesday, all reached) Brown: 1.1 innings (Sunday .. a full week ago) None of these 3 were used today. Instead we saw Oberg, who to be honest was not even in our top 10 relievers in spring training. Oh, and then the completely forgettable Ken Roberts to finish even though a guy like Axford… Read more »
Even more good news……by the time the mighty purple baseball machine rolls into Dodger stadium mid-week, the Dodgers will likely have Closer Kenley Jansen back. He’s was on a rehab assignment in A ball last week, so the next logical step is to face the AA level Rockies this week.
Fire Walt! Hire Giambi to coach team for remainder of season.
Why not rehire J.Tracy now that his overseer is gone.Stop cussing me–it’s a joke!
Sure am glad I only spent a couple hours total watching the “Bruises” (isn’t black, blue and purple the color) this past week. Watching KC these past several days shows what a farm system can produce. They are so deep that letting go of Butler was not only the wise move, it was economically sound. Kendry Morales FA signing was a stroke of genius by a GM whose been around the block. Granted, they had to wade through some bad… Read more »
KC and Tampa Bay are examples of (re)build processes that took awhile. The Cubs and Astros seem to have streamlined the process, although I think the Astros still have a ways to go……….that just happened to get off to a hot start. I think currently in the phase that I projected for us in 2018 (significant glimmers of hope).
But you point is good……….a team built on fundamentally sound principles has depth at every position within the organization.
I told my KC-native friend at work today that I’m in on the Royals. (Like I was last fall – long-suffering pennant winner, fun team to watch, etc.). I’m a front-runner! I’m on a bandwagon! No. I really do like the Royals. And it’s fun to talk with my friend about them 🙂 And to have somewhere to hang my baseball “hat” since the Rox AND the Red Sox are, ummm, terrible? Ag, and others: Shocking development. I’ve detached emotionally… Read more »
And sabrchip! The Bruises! Fantastic, spot-on 🙂
Throw strikes. Michael Pineda of the Yankees 54 strikeouts – 3 walks. Bartolo Colon (who is older than dirt) 40 strikeouts – 1 walk. Combined record 11 wins, 1 loss. None of the starters have even 2 to 1 ratio. New pitching coach, new catcher. Same results. Not enough rain last week.
Bill, on “throw strikes” – espn regularly updates their (Billy) Beane Count, ranking teams very simply by 4 factors: Batting: HRs, BBs Pitching: HRs allowed, BBs allowed. And the Beane Count almost always corresponds closely with the actual standings. So far this year in the NL, the Rockies are 3rd from the bottom (Brewers, Phillies trailing). No surprise that we’re also 13th out of 15th on BBs allowed. But here’s what surprised me: on the hitting side, we’re dead last… Read more »
Two things to add. The first is fact. Since 2007, here are the Rox total walks allowed team ranking (higher ranking means fewer walks allowed): 2007 – 22nd (meaning only 8 teams walked fewer batters than the Rockies – a solid performance) 2008 – 12th 2009 – 22nd 2010 – 18th 2011 – 10th 2012 – 3rd 2013 – 9th 2014 – 2nd 2015 – on pace for 1st. Disturbing trend since our last playoff appearance. The second is partially… Read more »
I barely watched or listened this past weekend although I drove by Coors twice a day from Wednesday through Saturday and it was pouring every day so I can’t comment on the details of every game, thus my general comment above. “Throw Strikes”. Making the outfield smaller, making the fences higher while at first hearing seems counter-intuitive but it would cut down on the singles, double or triples during the game. It seems every highlight (really lowlight) I see Charlie… Read more »
Breaking: Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Troy Tulowitzki will decide in a meeting Thursday with his agent, Paul Cohen, whether it’s time to ask the Rockies for a trade. “To say that it is not a possibility would be silly,” Cohen told The Post by phone. The Rockies look like a non-contender again, so it’s no surprise that Tulo might have finally reached his breaking point. Sherman notes that the Mets, Pirates, Mariners and Padres all… Read more »
I’m not arguing with your last sentence, I’m having a hard time figuring out how a player demanding a trade would cause his value to plummet. You make the trade based on his value regardless whether one demands a trade or not, no?
Me too. Does his value plummet because he’s seen as a bad guy? So long, Tulo, I don’t blame you a bit and I hope you get somewhere fun and successful. PS. The Yankees having no interest is really swell in my book 😉
Don’t count out the Yankees. Also…..the strength of the Yankees Farm system has improved significantly in the last year. 4 names to track:
Luis Severino (P)
Aaron Judge (OF)
Greg Bird (1B)
Rob Refsnyder (2B)
None of these guys are Kris Bryant/Byron Buxton/Miguel Sano “difference” makers. But we’ve waited too late to get a difference maker for Tulo. Honestly…….I think Judge and Bird would rake at Coors…….almost immediately.
Teams know the Rox have been backed into a corner and have to trade Tulo. So why would they offer as much? Early last year…..the Rox could play the “we don’t have to trade him” card to extract higher trade return.
True. (Argh.) Just hope Bridich holds his ground and doesn’t get a bag of balls. And IF we get some rakers from the Yanks, then maybe Tulo will not excel in the Bronx. For me. (Argh.)
Roxnsox – I get Bird and Judge mixed up. I “think” Bird was Arizona Fall League MVP last fall and hit 6-8 HRs. Judge is a physical beast. I think he’s 6′-6.” And as noted……I may have this backwards. They’re both potential 25 HR per season guys in the majors. Decent (not great) average and OBP. Defensively serviceable. Add up their output and the fact that they’re each +/- 22 years old and will be making minimum salary for years……..you’ve… Read more »
I disagree about trade value. Tulo is under contract for this year, for next year, for the year after that, for the year after that, for the year after that, and finally, for the year after that. Which is 2020. Oh, and the Rockies have an option on him for 2021. So it’s not like you’ll lose him for nothing in free agency if you don’t trade him this summer. Yes, clubs will understand that his now-$20 million per year… Read more »
Saw a tweet earlier today that tulo has only 2% walk rate, lowest by far of his career. Walking is not just a pitching problem, but an offensive, no pun intended, problem as well. Let hear from the sabermetrics expert that Rox rank at or near the top of the majors for highest percentage of swings at balls out of the zone.
Nice tidbit.
Trade Tulo now! Here’s why: I know some of us have commented on how he doesn’t seem to be the dominant defensive presence he used to be – not even what he was pre injury last year. I checked some of the advanced (UZR) stats and they confirm what my eyes tell me. So far this year, in 208 innings at SS, he rates as 1.3 runs below average. No big deal yet, although prorated over 150 games that’s about… Read more »
Again – nice tidbit. It seems to me that Tulo’s throwing motion is getting more side-armed every year as well. George Frazier tells us a dozen times about the greatness of his arm strength. But like many things from George…..I’m not automatically buying.
Dave Cameron sorts through the logical suitors for Tulo:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-think-about-a-troy-tulowitzki-trade/
Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox top his list. I see the Yankees ultimately being a big player in this.