REBUILD THE ROCKIES!

SDCARP’s Rebuild Proposal (Something to Think About on a Rainy Night)

Prior to embarking on the necessary tasks, some fundamental changes need to be made to the structure of the Rox front office / baseball operations. Some of these changes include;

1. Commit to scouting. Poach the best scouts from other Clubs. If we’re rebuilding, we need elite evaluators. We also have 4 of the top 44 picks in the upcoming draft. The scouting department should be logging serious overtime.
2. Commit (I mean COMMIT) to sabermetrics. We’ve made a step in the right direction, but more needs to be done.
3. Commit to foreign free agents (related to #1). If we are to believe the rumors, we were close to
4. signing Jose Dariel Abreu. But to my knowledge, that’s the only foreign player we seriously pursued in recent years. The floodgates from Cuba are open.
5. Adopt “best player available” philosophy in amateur draft. It’s OK if we draft 3 OFers with our first 3 picks. We can trade them later to address needs.
6. Commit (I mean COMMIT) to player development. Use the St. Louis Cardinals as the benchmark.

The Rox (and Fans of the Rox) Need to Keep These Fundamental Truths in Mind:

1. In the post PED era, a player’s peak appears to be 28 years old, and the decline from that point is significant. Injuries occur more often. Player’s salaries are escalating and the teams are being protective of their investments. Organizational depth is more important than ever.
2. Pitchers that throw sliders and cutters are more prone to TJ surgeries.
3. Post TJ pitchers seem to be good for about 700 IP before the injury re-appears.
4. Pitchers are reaching the majors younger than ever before. They’re not just arriving, they’re making big contributions.
5. Bull Pens are more important than ever.
6. I define “difference maker” as a Matt Harvey, Kris Bryant, Mookie Betts, Noah Syndergaard type talent. David Dahl (our best current prospect) is a nice player, but falls short of “difference maker.” Jon Gray is probably our next best prospect. Again……not a “difference maker.” But guys like Dahl and Gray will play up very well alongside “difference makers.”

Key Decisions Need to be Made Based on a Realistic, Focused Time Horizon

2015 is lost.

2016 will be miserable (this will be the case regardless of rebuild (or not)).

2017 will be bad…….but glimmers of hope will begin to appear. By 2017, we will be having our 4^th consecutive amateur draft with high early picks. Again….I go back to scouting (and player development). We should be showing some real extreme farm depth by 2017 – and have multiple “difference makers.”

2018 – play 500 ball and see serious glimmers of hope.

2019 – 2023 – contend. Playoffs 3 of the 4 years.

Current Contract Status of Some Key Players Courtesy of Rotoworld:

The 1500 LB Conventional Bomb Rebuild, Step-by-Step:

1. Trade Tulo. Much of the talk has centered on the Mets, so I’ll focus there. I don’t think they’ll give up Noah Syndergaard. We waited too long. I do think we can get Kevin Plawecki and another very solid, mid to high minor SP. So we address C (a slow developing position), and begin to address SP depth. For the sake of easy math, we save 20M per year moving forward (some of the savings needs to be moved to scouting and player development). I see the Nationals and Pirates being potential suitors as well.
2. Trade Cargo. This one isn’t easy. We need to get lucky. He needs to play much better. Honestly, getting someone to take his salary and getting a low minor league player with some upside is probably all we can expect.
3. Trade Morneau. He’s only signed through the end of the year, so it’s not a big salary commitment from the receiving team. But once again, don’t expect a high minor league player in return. This is a great example of why scouting will be so important. We need to know single A players well.
4. Trade DJ LeMahieu. Sell high. He’s a young, cheap, premium defensive player. Believe it or not, he might bring two prospects, or maybe one good high minor league player. Plus – he’ll be 30 by the time the contention window opens in 2019.
5. Trade Boone Logan. Just get someone to take his salary. I think this is possible since he’s a lefty. Don’t expect a return.
6. Trade Charlie Blackmon. Cheap, solid player. Should bring mid to high minor league prospect with some upside. Blackmon is similar to LeMahieu – he’ll be 32 when the contention window opens.
7. Trade JDLR. He’s actually relatively cheap and left-handed. Don’t expect much in return, but I think someone will take his salary if he rounds into typical JDLR form in the next 8-10 weeks.
8. Drew Stubbs – just release him already!
9. Nick Hundley/Daniel Descalso – if the planets align, we might be able to unload their salaries…..but that’s the best case scenario.

Results of 1500 LB Conventional Bomb Sale

1. One elite prospect.
2. 3 AA “solid” prospects.
3. 4-6 A “solid” prospects.
4. Shed +/- 75M in salary. Some of this needs to go back into scouting and player development.
5. Not directly related to sale – but happening nonetheless – 4 of the top 44 amateur picks. Use some of the 75M to sign all 4 of these guys ASAP and get them to the appropriate Farm location. Don’t play money games.
6. Carefully, thoroughly evaluate a-e. Don’t look at the results through purple tinted glasses. If there aren’t at least two “difference makers” immediately present – proceed to nuclear option

Nuclear Option (continuation on conventional option):

1. Trade Corey Dickerson. He’ll be 29 when the contention window opens. He’s currently cheap. Elite hitter. Will play well in AL. Extract one “difference maker” prospect and at least one other solid prospect in return.
2. Trade Nolan Arenado. He’ll be 28 when the contention window opens. He’s cheap. His Agent is Scott Boras. He’s the best defensive player in the game. He’s an elite offensive player. Extract two “difference makers” in return.

Results of Nuclear Option:

1. 4 elite, “difference maker” prospects.
2. 3 AA “solid” prospects.
3. 6-8 A “solid” prospects.
4. Shed +/- 77M in salary. Again – some of this needs to go back into scouting and player development.
5. Not directly related to sale – but happening nonetheless – 4 of the top 44 amateur picks. Use some of the 75M to sign all 4 of these guys ASAP and get them to the appropriate Farm location. Don’t play money games.
6. The Rox should have the best farm system in baseball. Anything less is a failure.

Two keys after the 2015 rebuild sale (regardless of conventional vs. nuclear option). First, the search for personnel has just begun. We should continue to be proactive with trades and foreign players. Secondly, as we move towards the 2017 and 2018 off-seasons, we should have a war chest of saved money to chase Free Agents. I’m definitely not suggesting that money saved in 2015, 2016, and 2017 should line Monfart’s pockets. Nope! It should be allocated towards the 2019-2023 contention window, allowing the Rox to be a top 10 salary team if necessary.

I realize the concept will come across as crazy to most. But the Rox need to be fundamentally rebuilt in a solid, sustainable way. The re-build will take time. Being realistic with the time frame is key to coming to grips with some of the players I’m suggesting to trade.

Do I think this will happen – “no!” Monfart doesn’t have the cojones.