REBUILD THE ROX PART III – THE AMATEUR DRAFT

Since it appears that another wet and dreary weekend is on the way to the Mile High City, and we’re all tired of talking about losing, timing appears perfect for the next installment of “REBUILD THE ROX.” This episode is particular needs RWO participation simply because the database is so large!

Before we get going – let’s revisit episode #1. Specifically some of the fundamental commitments the Rox need to make. Very specifically – two of the commitments I listed. Scouting and player development. Both of these are key to the success, or lack thereof, of the amateur draft. Next, let’s recall that I’m suggesting that the Rox adopt a “pick the best player available regardless of need” strategy. In my opinion, the amateur draft is an especially relevant topic this year since the Rox have 4 of the top 44 picks.

The Rox and our sister franchise Florida Marlins began drafting in 1992. So I’ll list the 1st round draft history of these two Clubs plus the St Louis Cardinals. I also choose the Cardinals for the following reasons:
a. They are regarded as a model of player development.
b. Similar size market to the Rockies.
c. Similar payroll.
d. I’m sure we would all be happy if the Rox could mimic some of the Cardinal’s success.

Disclaimer – I’m well aware that there is more than one round of the draft! I’m looking at only the 1st round due to time constraints, maintaining a manageable story size, and easy access to information – and because I have a real job!

COLORADO ROCKIES 1st ROUND DRAFT HISTORY
1992
John Burke
Right-handed pitcher

1993
Jamey Wright
Right-handed pitcher

1994
Doug Million
Left-handed pitcher

1995
Todd Helton
First baseman

1996
Jake Westbrook
Right-handed pitcher

1997
Mark Mangum
Right-handed pitcher

1997
Jason Fitzgerald
Outfielder

1998
Matt Roney
Right-handed pitcher

1998
Choo Freeman
Outfielder

1998
Jeff Winchester
Catcher

1999
Jason Jennings
Right-handed pitcher

2000
Matt Harrington*
Right-handed pitcher

2001
Jayson Nix
Shortstop

2002
Jeff Francis
Left-handed pitcher

2003
Ian Stewart
Third baseman

2004
Chris Nelson
Shortstop

2005
Troy Tulowitzki
Shortstop

2005
Chaz Roe
Right-handed pitcher

2006
Greg Reynolds
Right-handed pitcher

2007
Casey Weathers
Right-handed pitcher

2008
Christian Friedrich
Left-handed pitcher

2009
Tyler Matzek
Left-handed pitcher

2009
Timothy Wheeler
Outfielder

2009
Rex Brothers
Left-handed pitcher

2010
Kyle Parker
Outfielder

2010
Peter Tago
Right-handed pitcher

2011
Tyler Anderson
Left-handed pitcher

2011
Trevor Story
Shortstop

2012
David Dahl
Outfielder

2012
Eddie Butler
Right-handed pitcher

2013
Jonathan Gray
Right-handed pitcher

31 picks, 19 pitchers. 61% pitcher as 1st round pick.

FLORIDA MARLINS 1st ROUND DRAFT HISTORY
1992
Charles Johnson’97
Catcher

1993
Marc Valdes
Right-handed pitcher

1994
Josh Booty
Shortstop

1995
Jaime Jones
Outfielder

1996
Mark Kotsay
Outfielder

1997
Aaron Akin
Right-handed pitcher

1998
Chip Ambres
Outfielder

1999
Josh Beckett’03
Right-handed pitcher

2000
Adrian Gonzalez
First baseman

2001

2002
Jeremy Hermida
Outfielder

2003
Jeffrey Allison
Right-handed pitcher

2004
Taylor Tankersley
Left-handed pitcher

2005
Chris Volstad
Right-handed pitcher

2005
Aaron Thompson
Left-handed pitcher

2005
Jacob Marceaux
Right-handed pitcher

2005
Ryan Tucker
Right-handed pitcher

2005
Sean West
Left-handed pitcher

2006
Brett Sinkbeil
Right-handed pitcher

2006
Chris Coghlan
Third baseman

2007
Matt Dominguez
Third baseman

2008
Kyle Skipworth
Catcher

2009
Chad James
Left-handed pitcher

2010
Christian Yelich
First baseman

2011
Jose Fernandez
Right-handed pitcher

2012
Andrew Heaney
Left-handed pitcher

2013
Colin Moran
Third baseman

2013
Matt Krook
Left-handed pitcher

27 picks, 15 pitchers. 56% pitcher as 1st round pick.

ST LOUIS CARDINALS 1st ROUND DRAFT HISTORY
1992
Sean Lowe
Right-handed pitcher

1993
Alan Benes
Right-handed pitcher

1994
Bret Wagner
Left-handed pitcher

1995
Matt Morris
Right-handed pitcher

1995
Chris Haas
Third baseman

1996
Braden Looper ’06 Right-handed pitcher

1997
Adam Kennedy
Shortstop

1998
J. D. Drew
Outfielder

1998
Ben Diggins
First baseman

1999
Chance Caple
Right-handed pitcher

1999
Nick Stocks
Right-handed pitcher

1999
Chris Duncan ’06
First baseman

2000
Shaun Boyd
Outfielder

2000
Blake Williams
Right-handed pitcher

2001
Justin Pope
Right-handed pitcher

2002

2003
Daric Barton
Catcher

2004
Chris Lambert
Right-handed pitcher

2005
Colby Rasmus
Outfielder

2005
Tyler Greene
Shortstop

2005
Mark McCormick
Right-handed pitcher

2005
Tyler Herron
Right-handed pitcher

2006
Adam Ottavino
Right-handed pitcher

2006
Chris Perez
Right-handed pitcher

2007
Pete Kozma
Shortstop

2007
Clay Mortensen
Right-handed pitcher

2008
Brett Wallace
First baseman

2008
Lance Lynn ’11
Right-handed pitcher

2009
Shelby Miller
Right-handed pitcher

2010
Zack Cox
Third baseman

2010
Seth Blair
Right-handed pitcher

2010
Tyrell Jenkins
Right-handed pitcher

2011
Kolten Wong
Second baseman

2012
Michael Wacha
Right-Handed pitcher

2012
James Ramsey
Outfielder

2012
Stephen Piscotty
Third baseman

2012
Patrick Wisdom
Third baseman

2012
Steve Bean
Catcher

2013
Marco Gonzales
Left-Handed pitcher

2013
Rob Kaminsky
Left-Handed pitcher

39 picks, 22 pitchers. 56% pitchers as 1st round.

Here are some things that jump out at me:
1. The Cardinals, through shrewd wheeling and dealing, have made 39 1st round picks. In the same time span, the Rox have made 31 and the Marlins 27. I’m not surprised the Marlins are lower. They’ve had two major “build a team through trading and free agent signing” episodes in their history – and also two World Series titles!
2. The Rockies have taken the highest percentage of pitchers with their picks. In my opinion – this is a testament to a lean towards “draft for need” strategy. However – I have to be honest here – I expected an even stronger pitcher bias.
3. I see two stars on the Rox list – Helton and Tulo. I see four stars on the Marlins list – Johnson, Beckett, Gonzalez, and Fernandez. Time will tell with Yelich. I don’t see a single “star” on the Cardinals list (time will tell with Wacha) – but I also see very few busts. There are some spectacular busts on the Rox list.

This is where RWO participation is needed. There are some great statistical minds in this group – and also some that are keenly aware of baseball history. Please dig into this subject deeper and point out other items.

As noted in the opening, I propose a draft strategy of “best player available regardless of need” strategy. I’m in favor of this for several reasons:
1. We can trade for need later.
2. We have an awful history of pitcher development.
3. Conversely, we have some nice offensive success stories. I point to Dickerson, Arenado, and Blackmon (none are 1st rounders) in our current starting roster.
4. Offensive players are less likely to suffer career altering injuries.

Interestingly, after listing these reasons – it almost appears as though we should draft and develop offense, allow other Clubs to develop pitchers, and trade for them as they approach major league readiness. BUT……..we’re going to commit to player development and develop better pitchers…..RIGHT!

I’m working on proposing my first four draft choices for the Rox – have the first two already. But I need to do a bit more research for the latter two picks.

Have at it RWOers! And…..enjoy your Holiday weekend.

sdcarp

0 0 vote
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
guest
30 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago

Been watching the SEC and ACC baseball tournaments. Would love to have Dansby Swanson from Vandy with our #3 OA pick.

Also, Raffy Palmeiro’s son Preston hit a Grand Slam for NC State last night. Same sweet and easy LHed swing. He won’t be eligible for the draft until next year.

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago

Another quick update – the MLB draft is getting more pub and media attention in recent years, and sort of like the NFL draft, there are “risers” and “fallers.” Unfortunately, my proposed 2nd pick for the Rox – GA HS Catcher Tyler Stephenson appears to be a very fast riser…..probably to mid-first round at lowest. Also – I’ve read two more publications that believe Dillon Tate – my proposed #1 pick for the Rox (only because I believe the two… Read more »

ProgMatinee
ProgMatinee
5 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

I certainly hope Bridich knows what he’s doing with the draft because this year is crucial.
The Rox have like 4 picks in the top 45 or so. I think they have 7 in the top 80.

Pooter
Pooter
5 years ago

Is Chris Rusin getting the start today at pitcher or is that an error on http://www.coloradorockies.com?

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
5 years ago

DLR had a cut thumb from the previous start and scratched from today’s start. Rusin was called up and Flande optioned. I don’t get the management’s way of thinking – why Rusin instead of Christian Bergman? I don’t think Bergman has pitched in at least five days.

ProgMatinee
ProgMatinee
5 years ago

Bergman got hit around on Friday.

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
5 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

Tyler Stephenson can still be had with the #3 pick, no?

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
5 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

On BA 2015 Mock draft, Stephenson, Dansby Swanson, and Tyler Jay is being looked at by Arizona as the #1 pick, but they will likely go with Swanson. BA has Stephenson going at #10. I’m torn between Brendan Rogers (take best available athlete) and Tyler Jay. We need pitchers and more pitchers if we can’t sign top-tier or even 2nd-tier pitchers as free agents. I can live with passing up Stephenson since Tommy Murphy is looking good but if he… Read more »

ProgMatinee
ProgMatinee
5 years ago

Apparently some bad news on David Dahl being injured and needing surgery on his spleen and a broken rib. Yikes.

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago
Reply to  ProgMatinee

Prog – I saw that via Twitter earlier today. I did some quick Google searching and couldn’t find any video. It was a baseball collision – but I don’t know if it was with another player, wall, etc.??? I’m sure he’ll be fine. Ironically, when I was doing some research for one of the Rebuild the Rox “Sound Off” articles, I found one site that compared Dahl to Jim Edmonds. Edmonds ran into a few walls making spectacular plays. I… Read more »

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
5 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

The people row has an article on the Dahl injury. He and another player ran into each other.

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago

Interesting tidbit. The Brewers need a minor league SP call up to replace Wily Peralta (who has the dreaded oblique injury), so they’re calling up Tyler Wagner from their AA Biloxi Club. On the surface…..not a big deal. He’s not an elite prospect by any means – in fact, the Brewers have a woeful Farm. But I find it interesting that their most major league ready pitcher is stashed in Biloxi instead of…….drumroll…….Colorado Springs.

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago

Very nice, sortable draft board via Fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx As you will see, Fangraphs is predicting the Rockies will pick for need and end up with the 6th best player (per their ratings). But this Board looks very similar to others I’ve seen in the last week at the top (say top 10ish). If the Rox do in fact this……..it will be a typical Rox weak sauce move. Draft Jay 3rd, sign him under slot, then start the process of trying… Read more »

Agbayani
Agbayani
5 years ago

Draft: carp, everything I read suggests there’s 2 consensus top picks, Shortstops Swanson (college) and Rogers (high school) … and we pick 3rd. Given that everyone after that is a question mark, unless the Rockies do something really bizarre (think Casey Weathers, drafted as a reliever with no intention of him ever being a starter), I don’t think I can criticize them for taking Jay (lefty reliever with a great arm, most scouts say he can probably be made into… Read more »

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
5 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

I’ve been reading everywhere about Monday’s draft. Sounds like Rox will go either Jay or best available talent. sdcarp is always harping on best available cuz they are less likely to be busts than pitchers plus the fact that any team for that matter can stock up on pitchers after they are done with the first round. I am thinking the Cubs made a great pick last year for a catcher (long name that starts with an “M”). I wonder… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago

If I get time – I’ll start an updated Amateur Draft Topic in “Sound Off” this weekend. I did link a Fangraphs draft board yesterday (on one of these threads) that is very nice – totally interactive. It should be noted that with the NCAA Super Regionals are this weekend, so the draft boards remain very fluid. Lots of “real time” evaluation will be ongoing. I don’t like Jay at #3 because we’ll draft him as a SP, even though… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago

Approximate slot values for Rox; Rockies ($13,989,800) No. Round Slot value 3 1 6,223,300 27 1 2,004,600 38 A 1,626,500 44 2 1,395,200 77 3 789,700 107 4 533,000 137 5 399,100 167 6 298,900 197 7 223,700 227 8 176,600 257 9 165,000 287 10 154,200 RMH – regarding Stephenson – he’s currently projecting #10 to the Phillies. The Phillies have $3,200,000 at that slot. So if the Rox took Stephenson, they could probably sign him for 4.7M (much… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago

Very good updated draft board:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-mock-draft-replacement-post/

Note – I think we’ll see some more movement this weekend due to Super Regional activity. For what it’s worth – from the Rox standpoint – this draft board is the best case scenario.

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

Anthony Benintendi once again went wild in tonight’s Asrkansas beat down of Mizzou State 18-4. Benintendi is generally thought of as a 5-10 OA pick. Sweet, LHed swing, OFer.

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago

http://bba.am/iVOwzT

Baseball America drops Jay to 13th. Tate up to 3rd (I still maintain he’s a relief pitcher – no that it matters).

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago

I post this for RMH – Baseball America’s mock draft version 5.0 (yesterday) now has Arizona picking Tyler Stephenson at #1 OA, and are saying it’s even possible the Astros may take Dillon Tate at #2 OA.

This scenario would leave the Rockies to choose between the Consensus #1 and #2 players Swanson and Rogers (in theory).

I think we’re to the point that some misinformation may be purposely being leaked. We’ll know tomorrow.

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
5 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

Probably purposely leaking bad info, but I’ll be glad to take Swanson.

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago

Up to this point, there appears to be four names linked to the Rox:

Dansby Swanson
Brendan Rodgers
Dillon Tate
Tyler Jay

I’ll add a 5th, linked by myself and RMH:

Tyler Stephenson

My order of preference is as follows:

1A-Brendan Rodgers
1B -Dansby Swanson
2 -Tyler Stephenson
3- Dillon Tate
4- Tyler Jay

I rate Rodgers better than Swanson only because he fits out 2019-2022 contention window marginally better. I’ll be ecstatic with either.

Agbayani
Agbayani
5 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

Hah! 2019 – 2022 contention window. And I thought I was the biggest downer here! Could you at least give us 2018?

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

I’m not feeling it. We waited to late to get maximum return in a fire sale.

Let’s watch the amateur draft the next few days and then I’ll reassess “Rebuild the Rox Part I.”

Sad thing is Ag – my 2019 (or your 2018) is dependent on our Front Office suddenly doing all the right things. Do we really think this is going to happen?

30
0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x