Revisiting Your Preseason Win Projection.

We’re 82 games into the season. The All-Star Break is just around the corner. It’s a perfect time for a preseason projection “check-in” for RWOers. I’ll be happy to go first.

In early March, I threw out a 76-78 win prediction that was also popular with the various statistical algorithms at that moment. By the time ST was winding down, I downgraded my “official” prediction to 73 wins. My thoughts after ST was that our bad SP might actually be historically bad.

So 82 games in we’re playing at a .427 clip. That equates to 69 wins. Worse than my seemingly pessimistic projection. Looking ahead to the next 80, I see no indication things will get better.

0 0 vote
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
guest
14 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Bob in Indy
Bob in Indy
5 years ago

I predicted 81-81. It would take a miracle for that to happen.

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
5 years ago

Link to our predictions from March post:
http://jaredb17.sg-host.com/2015/03/18/time-for-2015-on-the-record-predictions/

79 for me; would take a miracle to get to 79 unless we replace at least three SPs and overhaul bullpen.

A great read from Purple Row on how the franchise performed historically in the first and second halves:
http://www.purplerow.com/2015/7/6/8896025/colorado-rockies-half-way

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago

Wow – 6 winning records in 22 complete seasons. Well on our way to 6 winning records in 23 seasons. Sad.

JulieG
JulieG
5 years ago

If they get to 81 someone needs to walk on water. Cargo needs an amazing second half and I don’t know if Matzek will ever even get back to the Bigs:-(

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago

RMH – thanks for the link to the predictions. I said this on March 19th. Honestly – I didn’t remember all this : “Record 73-89 Best Player – Arenado Biggest Surprise – Tom Murphy comes up in the 2nd half and does a respectable job in the otherwise Rockies miserable C situation. Biggest Disappointment #1 – Ottavino blows out elbow, too many sliders. Biggest Disappointment #2 – Bridich gets bullied by Monfart, doesn’t make the necessary moves, and sets us… Read more »

Pooter
Pooter
5 years ago

I’m gonna laugh when the Rockies go 56-21 the rest of the way with Cargo and Stubbs leading the way and I can say “I told you so”

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago
Reply to  Pooter

Love it! I hope you’re correct.

Gary
Gary
5 years ago
Reply to  Pooter

Only if they sign EYjr for big 2nd half push.You’re a true believer Pooter.

Pooter
Pooter
5 years ago
Reply to  Gary

Ha Ha! That would be even better Gary! I miss EYJ…

roxnsox
roxnsox
5 years ago

I had 71 wins. So I’m about on pace. Sadly.

Pooter
Pooter
5 years ago

In other news it looks like Gonzales German is starting in RF today…. Ha Ha!

http://m.mlb.com/player/542674/gonzalez-germen

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago
Reply to  Pooter

I’m totally OK with moves like this. It seems to me if a Club picks up 10 power BP arms per year off the scrap heap, 3-4 of them may pan out for a year or two. This is a legit way to build 50% of a BP. Maybe pay for proven 9th and 8th inning guys and a LOGY (not coming off elbow surgery) – and then have a flotilla of power arms at AAA and AA.

Gary
Gary
5 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

As I said yesterday-actually Sunday there are arms DFA’d including Joba,Naftali.

Pooter
Pooter
5 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

I’m OK with the move, I just found it funny that coloradorockies.com had him listed in the lineup batting 5th and playing RF.

14
0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x