Gents (and ladies) – we’re entering unchartered waters for our beloved Rox. It’s time for some Rockies trade math.
The “Rule 5” group;
Dahl, Moll, Patterson, Carasiti, Jemiola, Balog, Almonte, Thomas, Rosell, White, Prime,Valaika, Tinoco, Jimimian, maybe others……. What do these guys have in common? Rule 5 eligible of course. 14 names (at least). I’m very likely missing others.
The “Free Agent” group;
JDLR, Hundley, Descalso, Logan, Reynolds, and Raburn. What do these guys have in common? Expiring contracts of course. 6 names.
The “Dead Wood” group.
Barnes, Bergman, Garneau, Gurka, Oberg, Ynoa (and maybe Butler and Paulsen). Dead wood on 40 man roster. 6 names minimum. Maybe 8.
The “Bad Contract” Group;
Qualls, McGee, Motte, Parra
We have a mostly nice problem! A bit of a roster crunch. This puts in a far different position than previous year’s as we approach the deadline. Since 2011, we just needed talent and volume. So it was easy to (attempt to) judge a trade. But this year there will be (potentially) multiple motives behind trades. So don’t be quick to judge.
Trade Group #1
JDLR, Hundley, Descalso, Raburn, Reynolds. Let’s assume the return for any of these guys will be A or low A types, not Rule 5 eligible. By trading any of these guys, we save a little $$$$, get a “low” level Prospect (“low” doesn’t mean untalented – but likely years away – not a bad thing) and free a spot on the 40 man. All good outcomes.
Trade Group #2
Cargo, Blackmon, and maybe even Logan (he’s a ‘tweener). These guys should bring returns from the high minor’s or maybe even a player currently in the majors. In the case of Cargo and Blackmon, perhaps multiple players. We’re saving more $$$ here (especially in Cargo’s case), but likely not freeing 40 man spots.
Trade Group #3
Qualls, Motte, McGee, Parra. No one wants these guys straight up. Not good enough, too expensive, or the dreaded toxic combination of both.
Fantasy Math Time (applying some Rox “realism”)
We trade Logan, Descalso, Hundley, and one of Cargo/Blackmon. Let’s assume we net out 3 40-man spots out of these deals. Then, we don’t renew JDLR and Raburn. That’s two more, so we’re up to 5 open 40 man spots. Let’s then cut Garneau, Gurka, Ynoa, Bergman and mercifully Oberg. We’ve now got 10 40-man spots. You can already see where I’m going with this?
We really need to pursue the following strategies this year;
The Sweetener Strategy:
Use some of our Rule 5 eligible minor leaguers as deal “sweeteners.”
If the Indians balk at a Cargo for Clint Frazier deal, let’s add Jemiola and Balog to the deal (for example) to entice them.
The Toxic Dump Strategy
Borrowing from the Braves and Padres with this one. Package one of our Toxic guys with a desirable. Aka….”we’ll give you Boone Logan AND Chad Qualls for nothing more than future considerations.” Before you gasp and cry foul, consider that this frees 2 spots on the 40-man and saves $$$, especially $$$ assigned to Qualls next season. So the real life outcome of this type deal is that we save money and a player like Jemiola remains in the Organization.