Gents (and ladies) – we’re entering unchartered waters for our beloved Rox. It’s time for some Rockies trade math.
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The “Rule 5” group;
Dahl, Moll, Patterson, Carasiti, Jemiola, Balog, Almonte, Thomas, Rosell, White, Prime,Valaika, Tinoco, Jimimian, maybe others……. What do these guys have in common? Rule 5 eligible of course. 14 names (at least). I’m very likely missing others.
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The “Free Agent” group;
JDLR, Hundley, Descalso, Logan, Reynolds, and Raburn. What do these guys have in common? Expiring contracts of course. 6 names.
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The “Dead Wood” group.
Barnes, Bergman, Garneau, Gurka, Oberg, Ynoa (and maybe Butler and Paulsen). Dead wood on 40 man roster. 6 names minimum. Maybe 8.
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The “Bad Contract” Group;
Qualls, McGee, Motte, Parra
We have a mostly nice problem! A bit of a roster crunch. This puts in a far different position than previous year’s as we approach the deadline. Since 2011, we just needed talent and volume. So it was easy to (attempt to) judge a trade. But this year there will be (potentially) multiple motives behind trades. So don’t be quick to judge.
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Trade Group #1
JDLR, Hundley, Descalso, Raburn, Reynolds. Let’s assume the return for any of these guys will be A or low A types, not Rule 5 eligible. By trading any of these guys, we save a little $$$$, get a “low” level Prospect (“low” doesn’t mean untalented – but likely years away – not a bad thing) and free a spot on the 40 man. All good outcomes.
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Trade Group #2
Cargo, Blackmon, and maybe even Logan (he’s a ‘tweener). These guys should bring returns from the high minor’s or maybe even a player currently in the majors. In the case of Cargo and Blackmon, perhaps multiple players. We’re saving more $$$ here (especially in Cargo’s case), but likely not freeing 40 man spots.
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Trade Group #3
Qualls, Motte, McGee, Parra. No one wants these guys straight up. Not good enough, too expensive, or the dreaded toxic combination of both.
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Fantasy Math Time (applying some Rox “realism”)
We trade Logan, Descalso, Hundley, and one of Cargo/Blackmon. Let’s assume we net out 3 40-man spots out of these deals. Then, we don’t renew JDLR and Raburn. That’s two more, so we’re up to 5 open 40 man spots. Let’s then cut Garneau, Gurka, Ynoa, Bergman and mercifully Oberg. We’ve now got 10 40-man spots. You can already see where I’m going with this?
We really need to pursue the following strategies this year;
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The Sweetener Strategy:
Use some of our Rule 5 eligible minor leaguers as deal “sweeteners.”
If the Indians balk at a Cargo for Clint Frazier deal, let’s add Jemiola and Balog to the deal (for example) to entice them.
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The Toxic Dump Strategy
Borrowing from the Braves and Padres with this one. Package one of our Toxic guys with a desirable. Aka….”we’ll give you Boone Logan AND Chad Qualls for nothing more than future considerations.” Before you gasp and cry foul, consider that this frees 2 spots on the 40-man and saves $$$, especially $$$ assigned to Qualls next season. So the real life outcome of this type deal is that we save money and a player like Jemiola remains in the Organization.
sdcarp
Love the Pomeranz/Espinoza deal from the Padres perspective. Classic “sell high” maneuver.
Perfect trade scenarios you drew up; will the Rockies do it? There appears to be much better chance of this happening in the JB Era without the owners meddling unlike the DOD/Gievett era.
Bridich has cleared many hurdles.
The next will be proving the Rox Front Office can move quickly. It’s my opinion that some of these deadline deals come together quickly. JB won’t have a month to persuade Monfort that trade “X” is the right thing to do for the franchise.
I love the idea of packaging one of our “toxic” assets with someone another club actually wants. I’m afraid nobody’s gonna touch Parra and his ill-advised 3 year deal. Motte? Sure, someone might take him. (By the way, I’m the only person in the world who still thinks Qualls is an acceptable back end of the bullpen arm on a fairly reasonable contract, so I’d keep and actually use him. Walt, are you listening? What is it that you see… Read more »
You’ll note that I didn’t include Reynolds in one of my trade scenarios. Unfortunately (mostly), I fear he’s the most likely of the 6 FAs to be back next season. I can see the Rox extending him an offer, and him accepting. The best way for this NOT to happen is for the Rox to bring back a 1st baseman in a trade. We’ll see.
If you remember , the Rockies made Lucas Harrell look like a Cy Young winner when he was with the Astros a couple of years ago. Not much hope at least from me that we will win tonight.
Late last year….my eyes told me Jose Reyes had the worst range of any SS in baseball. But…..I now amend that. I think Erik Ayabar’s range may be worse.
Keep an eye on the Washington Nationals in regards to Cargo and especially Blackmon. They don’t have many weaknesses, but CF is one. They also have intriguing guys in the minors. My peeps in Asheville have told me multiple times there’s only one player in the Sally League better than Brendan Rodgers…..the Nats Victor Robles. They’re not giving him up, but they have another OF Prospect named Andrew Stevenson who profiles as a classic defensive CFer with leadoff potential. Plus… Read more »
We don’t need Stevenson with David Dahl ready. I feel when he’s here he’s going to stick, he won’t be shuttling between AAA and Coors
Dahl’s average is up to 529 in ABQ. He’s already hit a Slam tonight.
This is EXACTLY why we need Stevenson or similar. Dahl is ready, we need to clear a spot, and backfill his spot on the Farm, because a few years down the road Dahl will likely be better in LF. Opportunity Cost.
From Rotoworld:
A great target for the Rox….but I don’t think we matchup with the Cubs: Cubs 1B prospect Dan Vogelbach slashed four hits including his 16th home run of the season Monday in Triple-A Iowa’s loss to Salt Lake. The four hits were a season-high for Vogelbach. The 23-year-old has now hit safely in 10 of his last 11 games. He’s hit .450 during that span while lifting his season average from .298 to .318. Vogelbach leads the Pacific Coast League… Read more »
One thing to watch with the Nats…….Trea Turner. He’s a SS. I know what you’re thinking. We have Story. We have Rodgers. Well Turner has also (rightly or wrongly – the hazards of Dusty Baker as Manager) been blocked in Washington to the point that he’s been playing OF @ AAA lately. I haven’t heard any reports of how he looks in the OF. But he has ++ speed. If that transition looks good (the DBacks dis it with Chris… Read more »
Want some humor? Go to Purple Row and read the comments after the “Nats have interest in Blackmon” topic. Several phenomena’s occurring:
1. Rox fans overvaluing our players (remember, Blackmon is a 2.5-3.0 WAR player. Not shabby, but not great)
2. Rox fans not understanding the Opportunity Cost of blocking Dahl.
3. Rox fans not realizing Blackmon’s age.
4. Rox fans not grasping the “sell high” concept.
Vogelbach is now a Seattle Mariner.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/cubs-mariners-trade-montgomery-vogelbach.html
I’m in IceHouse bar before game watching MLBN. Best trade fits is the topic. Andrew miller and Chapman are #1, #2. Blackmon is #3 best fit in trade world for Nats.
Nice!
Looks like you went to a game and a flash flood broke out.
The Nats have a lovely Farm. All sorts of possibilities.
Want to dream big, big, big? Blackmon and reliever to Nats for Robles, Cargo and Hundley to Indians for Frazier. Money saved pays for Bud Black and coaching/scouting staff of his choice for 2017.
I mentioned Trea Turner earlier. As if on cue, FanGraphs is onboard with this:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/trea-turner-and-the-recent-history-of-outfield-conversions/
Mariners snag 1Bman Dan Vogelbach (and a servicable looking AA pitcher as well) from Cubs for Mike Montgomery. Montgomery is LHed RP. Better then Boone Logan, but not “that” much better.
This is too bad. Vogelbach was a perfect fit for the Rox (in theory). Can’t help but think we missed a golden opportunity.
Somewhere along the way I’ve said we should be buyers and sellers……meaning get rid of expiring contract guys and Cargo while trying to find a long(ish) term answer at 1B and even threw out the names of Wil Myers and Freddie Freeman. I made that suggest with a caveat……….NoDo is given a long-term extension, meaning Ryan McMahon could be the centerpiece of the deal. Well…..today there are rumors that the CWS may go into sell mode. That means Jose Abreu… Read more »
How do you guys (and girls) feel about trading within the Division? I ask because I read something last week noting that Boone Logan is a good fit for e Giants and Jon Heyman (who got lambasted last he reported a Cargo rumor) says the Dodgers might be interested in Cargo. My philosophy is that in general, you focus on your team and do everything possible to make it better. If that means trading within the Division….so be it. Regarding… Read more »
Well, since I operate on emotion, naturally I hate the idea of (possibly) helping the Giants or Dodgers. I have no attachment to Logan. I’ll be sad when Cargo leaves, but I’ll get over it, especially when I see how you guys rate the return players!
When I see whether you guys rate the return highly, I mean!
From Dave Cameron at FanGraphs (predicting teams moves at the deadline) – thinks the Indians will be among the biggest buyers: The Indians have put themselves in a strong position to make the playoffs, and with the fickleness of starting pitching — see Mets, New York — they will try to take advantage of this opportunity. Generally reluctant to trade their best young prospects, I think they’ll back off that stance this year, and move either Clint Frazier or Bradley… Read more »