Rox doing the Smithsonian…visiting Nationals

After a great 11th inning come-from-behind win on Wednesday at Coors…with McKenry probably having had his greatest moment in a Rox uniform, the Rox got to have a nice flight to D.C., maybe bringing the kids along for a final before school starts trip to the nation’s capitol. The Rox are playing out the string again this season…and sadly it means we only have the progress of Kyle Parker and Ben Paulsen and the myriad of bullpen arms to keep our attention until Jenny Cavnar leads us into the post-game, and right now, Jenny is by far the most attractive thing about this team.

 

And yes…I want her to be calling the games next year for ROOT as well, but that is a post for another day, but given the falling rating for the broadcasts, they need the talent infusion and she actually sounds intelligent when she speaks about the game…something precious few former players have the ability to replicate.

 

Tonight’s opening game matchup features the Rox best pitcher…and the only one that I think we can safely say, assuming he isn’t traded at some point in the next 8 months, will be in the Rox opening day rotation. One can only hope that he is the weakest of next year’s rotation. Right now…DLR is still the best of the Rox rotation. Facing a Nationals teams that is struggling in general and offensively specifically, this may actually be the best time for the team to play the Nats. I remain more optimistic for this team to lose 99 games and get the #1 overall pick, but in any one series…I really would like to see them win at least 2 of the 3 games. The first one tonight would be nice.

 

Facing him is Jordan Zimmermann, a very good pitcher who is going to get a lot of money this off-season. I would love to have the Rox make him their #1 starter this winter but…how much would they have to overpay to get him to come to Coors and be the foundation?

 

Yea….not going to happen is it?

 

Rox Position Nationals Position
Blackmon CF Escobar 3B
Reyes SS Espinoza 2B
Arenado 3B Harper RF
CarGo RF Zimmerman 1B
DJ 2B Werth LF
Paulsen 1B Desmond SS
Hundley C Ramos C
Parker LF Taylor CF
De La Rosa P Zimmermann P
0 0 vote
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
guest
38 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
5 years ago

We need some good news:

Jeff Hoffman – 5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3BB, 5K, 77 pitches

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
5 years ago

BoSox send Mike Napoli and the remaining portion of his 16M salary for a PTBN later or cash, or a bucket of balls. What was does Boston get? 8 weeks to look at Rookie Travis Shaw with the big Club.

Agbayani
Agbayani
5 years ago

Damn, all this wheeling and dealing leaves me feeling left out. Oh, to be a buyer at the deadline. Hoffman news is great though. And Daniel Norris got shelled in his second start for Detroit. Feeling a little better. EDIT: Kyle Kendrick, no structural damage, could return this year. Feeling worse.

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
5 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

Ag – I know you’re a WAR guy. Kendrick’s WAR is essentially the worst in all of baseball – SP or RP. It’s impressively bad.

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
5 years ago

Stay healthy Cargo. Stay healthy.

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
5 years ago

Free Agent OFers for 2016. Tell me a 29 year old Cargo for 2 years at 37M doesn’t stack up well against this list: Left Fielders Yoenis Cespedes (30) Rajai Davis (35) Alejandro De Aza (32) David DeJesus (36) – $5MM club option with a $1MM buyout Chris Denorfia (35) Jonny Gomes (35) – $3MM vesting/club option Alex Gordon (32) – $12.5MM player option Matt Joyce (31) David Murphy (34) – $7MM club option with a $500K buyout Gerardo Parra… Read more »

Gary
Gary
5 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

I keep saying he is worth a ton of players or worth keeping now that he is headed back to elite status.But I want at least one ML quality starter plus prospects if he is traded and I don’t mean Guthrie/Kendrick et.al.,but a stud starter ready to be an ace.

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
5 years ago

From one of the local SD papers: “Justin Upton is not going to resign with the Padres and the Padres should not want to sign him long term. Justin Upton is likely going to command a long term contract in the ballpark of 150 to 200 million dollars even with a poor showing over the last few months.” Would you rather be on the hook for 7 years, 160M for Justin Upton entering his 28 year old campaign, or 2… Read more »

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
5 years ago

Cargo – gw granny and Kahnle gets save. Kahnle is first man up and still is up for the next few weeks. His change up is mighty impressive – big break and sink. Now I understand why Kahnle stayed down in Albuquerque for so long so he can add a change up pitch. Folks, that’s development of the Rockies pitchers!

Agbayani
Agbayani
5 years ago

Kahnle – RMH, hope you’re right. Plus his fastball average velocity is now 96. If he has that change working as a swing and miss pitch, he just possibly could be a real closer. We can dream. He’s never given up many gopher balls … right now, it’s just the BBs that limit his ceiling. If he can get that under control … If …

Gary
Gary
5 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

If Zero is back by mid 2016 they could be the beginning of an 8th and 9th inning shut down bull pen!

Agbayani
Agbayani
5 years ago

Just like spring training, Gary. We’re thinking up reasons for hope. There’s always next year in baseball. Here’s a little perspective – next team up, the Mets, who’ve managed to put together an amazin’-ly good young rotation: – Harvey: drafted, 7th overall pick (Jon Gray? We can dream) – Syndergaard: drafted, 6th overall pick by the Blue Jays (Next year’s #1? Maybe the 2nd or 3rd pick overall. We can dream) – Matz: drafted, 72nd pick (Freeland?) – deGrom: drafted,… Read more »

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
5 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

Ag – this entire process is what I’ve been urging (not just chillin’ with TJ recoveries). 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 Mets sucked. But hidden by the loses and poor showing in the standings were good drafts, good trades, and got player development. This is our 2011. So we’ve got 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018. We can be ready by 2019. Here’s the part you guys hate hearing. Know what happens in 2019? Arenado and Boras break the bank with a… Read more »

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
5 years ago

Cargo, Cargo, Cargo…………..keep helping us open that 2019 contention window.

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
5 years ago

Cargo, Cargo, Cargo…………keep helping us open that 2019 contention window.

Amended – keep hitting 2 HR’s off guys like Scherzer and we’ll get return that might open the contention window in 2018.

Agbayani
Agbayani
5 years ago

Carp, I’m kind of agnostic when it comes to trading Arenado. Of course his value is highest now — the team that gets/keeps him gets the max under market years. But to me he’s a David Wright — clear all the other long term contracts (which is what we’ve done — no guaranteed money to anyone post 2017) and you can just as easily go year by year with Nolan. Remember, he’s not a free agent till 2020. Maybe we’ll… Read more »

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
5 years ago

Someone (it was DD or Ag……I think maybe DD) mentioned David Wright in recent article. I found it timely. David Wright is a cautionary tale in relation to Nolan Arenado. Let me preface this by saying the rules are different in New York. Deep pockets. Big revenue. Big market. But…… In 2013, the Mets resigned Wright to an 8 year, 138M contract. At the time, Wright was entering his 30 year old season. By 2013 – the Mets probably had… Read more »

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
5 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

Ag – I must have been writing this as you were posting your thoughts.

Also – you’re correct, NoDo is a FA in 2020, not 2019 as I say above. Sorry for the mistake. Honestly – that just makes him more valuable as a commodity.

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
5 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

Also – if Boras and NoDo walk in 2020, the Rox get a compensation pick (similar to Cuddyer this year). So they pick another Tyler Nevin level player (not a bad thing). But that player won’t be ready to help until 2023.

This is all about syncing contention windows.

Agbayani
Agbayani
5 years ago

I’m tracking this surprisingly entertaining game (please get to the 9th with a lead so we can see how Kahnle handles the save opp again) when I need to take a break from some gardening … a couple random thoughts: 1. Carp predicted before the season that our starting pitching could be historically awful. Correct again. Check this out: all-time worst FIP- (fielding independent pitching, which is park adjusted and is more reliable than ordinary ERA) 1946-present: 1. 2007 Nationals… Read more »

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
5 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

I totally agree Blackmon should be shopped as well. There’s another reason (in addition to your excellent analysis) – we need to get looks at Kyle Parker, Matt McBride, David Dahl, etc. So not only is Blackmon performing well and get ready to enter year 30 (caution, caution, caution) – he’s also blocking potential future assets.

Agbayani
Agbayani
5 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

And David Dahl is one of my Ag’s Stat-head Exception guys: great natural tools/talent, don’t be deceived by stats that aren’t eye popping. If it wasn’t for the hamstring a couple years ago and the ruptured spleen this year, I think we’d be seeing him in September.

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
5 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

Paulsen is intriguing. I can see him being a completely serviceable player as we rebuild. Not a long term asset – but serviceable. Paulsen and Parker are Clemson alums. I can sing the Clemson fight song. So we have that!

Gary
Gary
5 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

For me the Blackmon/Cargo situation should be affected by Dickerson’s health or lack there of.He could become the new Cargo[offensively] or the Cargo of past several years[injuries=lack of production].Improved pitching won’t help if we get rid of all our offense in the process,especially with Coors as our home field.

Agbayani
Agbayani
5 years ago

Well, Kahnle isn’t exactly cruising through the save opp. No thanks to NoDo.

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
5 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

I would say this even if he had given up a Grand Slam –

If we’re not bringing up Castro – Kahnle gets every Save opportunity the remainder of the season. Regardless of outcome. Give him a long leash. We have nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Julian
Julian
5 years ago

There isn’t anyone on this team that we don’t trade if the package that we get in return is compelling enough. So, this offseason we listen to every other team’s offers to us for Arenado, Blackman or DJ. But, unless we get blown away by what is being offered, I wouldn’t trade any of them yet. We have lots of time to trade Arenado before he becomes a free agent in 2020. I think that his likely successor is Ryan… Read more »

Gary
Gary
5 years ago
Reply to  Julian

I was I could vote for your comment 10 times Julian!Thanks for voicing my sentiments and not confusing the issue with WAR-BABIP-RC+ and other crapola[sorry Ag/Carp-I read and enjoy all your input] that an old fart like me often finds hard to wrap my aging brain around.

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
5 years ago
Reply to  Gary

No worries Gary. My wife says the same thing all the time! I’m well aware of the fact that I’m insufferable! Julian/Gary – here’s the thing about NoDo (and I’ll spare you stats), a big portion of his extreme value as a tradable is commodity is that receiving team doesn’t have to worry about Scott Boras for 4 years. The receiving team gets his arbitration years (2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019). My guess – those 4 years combined = 40M… Read more »

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
5 years ago
Reply to  Julian

Julian – we’re so far away from contention, I wouldn’t necessarily worry about successors in terms of specific positions. For example, don’t be surprised if 2019 rolls around and McMahon and Nevin are playing 1B and Brendan Rogers is playing 3B.

At this point – it’s about accruing talent.

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
5 years ago

BTW – I’m genuinely excited about Kahnle. His velocity looks easy. As far as I can tell, he’s only throwing a fastball and change up. Low stress on elbow and shoulder. “If” he can just come to grips with his control, he can do this…….for years to come.

He also has that classic Closer/WWF wrestler look. What’s his mound song? He needs some AC/DC or Mettalica.

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
5 years ago

If trade Arenado this year or next year at latest. Rockies always had enough offense. It’s the pitchers that Rockies never had. Gotta stockpile and stockpile pitchers and pitchers. If we end up having too many pitchers we can always use them to fill a need for playoffs run.

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
5 years ago

Here’s the (only) scenario that I keep Arenado; We engage Mr. Boras in contract negotiations immediate after THIS season is complete. First, we offer to “buy” the arbitration years at an inflated rate. I stated above that I think Arenado’s 4 arbitration years are worth $40M. That’s a slightly educated guess at best……but for the purposes of this, let’s say it’s correct. So let’s offer 60M for those 4 years, and offer 3 more for 25M per year. This amounts… Read more »

Agbayani
Agbayani
5 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

Here’s some back of the envelope math on Nolan’s value: – Let’s call him a 5 WAR per year player. He may be a little better, but I give some back through a more generous aging curve — remember, recent studies suggest a peak at age 26. If you were to sign him through 2022, that’s his age 31 season. We’ll call him 5 WAR through age 27, then 4.5, 4.0, 3.5, 3.0. That’s a total of 30 WAR. –… Read more »

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
5 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

Couple of thoughts here – First, I’m not in favor of signing him. He need too many pieces. He’s the key to getting quite a few of the missing pieces. You know I agree with the aging curve. Second, thanks for the more precise analysis. I’m really not surprised at the higher number. For those that want to keep him – console yourself with this – arbitration years 2016 and 2017 can be paid for with money saved from trading… Read more »

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
5 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

Glad you brought up Zimmerman.

Zimmerman (shoulder), Wright (back) – too great defensive third basemen. Threw their bodies around in Little League, HS, College, Minors, Pros. It takes a toll.

Julian
Julian
5 years ago

Great conversation. If we get bowled over by an offer for Nolan this offseason, I think that we have to consider taking it because of the contention window theory, but I think that we don’t have to trade Nolan this offseason if we don’t get bowled over by an offer for him. He’ll have a lot of value for a couple of years if he continues to play the way he currently is playing. I think that we should definitely… Read more »

sdcarp
Admin
sdcarp
5 years ago

“Between now and the end of the year, I’d consider giving CarGo and Nolan more days off. I think that it’s critical that we keep them off of the DL between now and the end of the year.”

Amen Brotha – Amen!!!!

38
0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x