Time for 2015 “On the Record” Predictions!

Alright fellow RWOer’s – it’s time to go “on the record” with your fearless 2015 season predictions. Let’s get at least the following:

W-L record

Best player

Biggest surprise player

Biggest disappointment player

Of course feel free to add more. In fact, please do. Seems like this is something that should be revisited once the season is complete and a fabulous (yet to be determined prize) given to the winner. Deadline is before first pitch, game #1. Good luck!

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sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago

I’m still formulating my picks. Originally I was in general agreement with the projection algorithms that are in the 76-78 win range. But the SP situation – which I thought was bad – might even be worse!

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago

Prediction #1 – Kyle Kendrick’s agent is banging his (or her) head against the wall this AM for not putting in an “opening day starter” bonus clause in Kendrick’s contract. Who would have thunk it?

Pooter
Pooter
5 years ago

Record 91– 68

Best Player– Cargo! MVP Year

Biggest Surprise — Drew Stubbs

Biggest Disappointment– Blackmon— Stubbs takes over as everyday starter.

jaredean
Admin
jaredean
5 years ago
Reply to  Pooter

I think you have your wins/losses reversed πŸ˜‰

Gary
Gary
5 years ago
Reply to  Pooter

Keep chugging that koolaid!

JulieG
JulieG
5 years ago

Record: 81 wins

Best player: Cargo

Biggest surprise player: Matzek

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
5 years ago

79-83 (really tried hard to type 82-80)
Rox MVP: Tulo if he’s still with Rox after trade deadline, else Nolan Arenado
Biggest surprise – Corey Dickerson putting up MVP type stats & Matzek winning 15 games
Biggest disappointment – Walt Weiss sticking with ineffective Jhoulys Chacin all year

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago

I like your biggest disappointment pick – unfortunately, I can see it happening.

jaredean
Admin
jaredean
5 years ago

W-L record: 70-92 (this is the worst i’ve ever felt about the boys going into a season in many many years) Best player: Arenado/Dickerson (Arenado will play a full season healthy and rock it with the bat and the glove…Dickerson will prove he isn’t a fluke – love that kid) Biggest surprise player: Brothers (he’ll find that strike zone he’s been missing…talk of him being our 2016 closer by end of season) Biggest disappointment player: Tulo/Cargo…both play it “safe” to… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago

Record 73-89

Best Player – Arenado

Biggest Surprise – Tom Murphy comes up in the 2nd half and does a respectable job in the otherwise Rockies miserable C situation.

Biggest Disappointment #1 – Ottavino blows out elbow, too many sliders.
Biggest Disappointment #2 – Bridich gets bullied by Monfart, doesn’t make the necessary moves, and sets us up to be the worst team in baseball in 2016

RobC
RobC
5 years ago

Record: 77-85

Best Player: Arenado

Biggest surprise: Rosario bats .300/20/90 playing 130 games at C/1B (but makes league high errors at both positions)

Biggest Disappointment: the entire starting rotation, again, none winning more than 10 games

Bob in Indy
Bob in Indy
5 years ago

Record: 81-81 (Jaredean can’t accuse me of getting my wins and losses reversed!) Best Player: Nolan Biggest Surprise: Hundley Biggest Disappointment: JDLR Possibilities: Team will improve on road, strikeouts in key situations and TOOTBLAN’s will continue to haunt, bullpen will be better, starting pitching will be much better but an unexpected drop by JDLR will keep them from the playoffs, Arenado will hit over .300 and with power, Blackmon will fizzle, Cargo and Tulo will get hot and cold at… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob in Indy

Something totally PREDICTABLE will doom the team – Dick Monfort.

Bob in Indy
Bob in Indy
5 years ago

Wow, except for Pooter you have all followed my mantra from last fall: “I will not be optimistic in the spring.” We can all hope, however, that Pooter has the last laugh as he brags about his prediction come October.

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago

Ladies and gents – we may be seeing the last of jhoulys chacin as a MLB pitcher today. The velocity isn’t there. Something is up with him, and it isn’t good. You also have to believe that JDLR is to the point where he needs to begin the season on the DL. Silver lining? Perhaps this will force Monfart’s Follies into keeping Jon Gray with the big club. Come on Monfart – think out of the box a bit, you’ll… Read more »

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
5 years ago

Chacin hasn’t been healthy in basically two years. So ST is a time to get back into game mode, but even that is too short for someone who hasn’t been healthy in two years. My biggest fear is that the Rockies still string him along on the big club and we throw away games for each Chacin start. My biggest hope is he goes to Albuquerque; he can be sent there with his consent and let someone else be a… Read more »

Agbayani
Agbayani
5 years ago

I didn’t understand signing Chacin to a 2-year deal before the 2013 season … and then the Rockies somehow squeezed 1 o.k. year out of his arm. I really, really didn’t understand signing him to a 1-year deal this past offseason, and I doubt they even get a dozen o.k. starts out of him this year. Shoulder injuries are still deadly, and we ought to know. (See Francis, Jeff; Jimenez, Ubaldo) By the way, Bettis did look pretty impressive in… Read more »

Bob K.
Bob K.
5 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

Apparently at least $4MM of it wasn’t guaranteed money which they now have available for other needs.

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
5 years ago

Yes! Yes! Chacin RELEASED by the Rockies! Yahoo!

ProgMatinee
ProgMatinee
5 years ago

Shakes head. Remember when Ian Stewart and Chacin were coveted prospects in 2008 when the Rockies could have moved them both for a starting pitcher to try to improve off the WS?

Cisco Kid
Cisco Kid
5 years ago

Rox release Chacin and save about 4 mil in salary. In other news, Dick Monfart is part of group that purchases Macaroni Grill chain for 8mil. The cynic in me doesn’t believe this is purely coincidental. History has shown us of how business is done at 20th and Blake.

Agbayani
Agbayani
5 years ago

Great to see them cutting their losses here. I’ll take it as a positive — new guy Bridich made a mistake re-signing Chacin, recognized it was a mistake when Chacin simply didn’t show major league stuff this spring, and promptly dumped him. Saves $4 million … sure. But it also saves us from the traditional Rockies way of sending him out there in April and May, getting 10 or 12 horrible starts like Garland or Moyer before they move on.… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

I like the 5th night Chef analogy. I also like the parents analogy. I’m from the “sorta” south (North Carolina) and my parents seem to be charter members of Cracker Barrel. So I get what you’re saying. My point (and I know you get this) is that Monfort should manage this club like it’s the Macaroni Grill. Turn it over to an expert and make it profitable (or in the case of the Rockies – make them winners). As the… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago

MAJOR props to the Rox on this one. The money paid to Chacin to this point is a sunk cost. It shouldn’t cloud or influence the decision making process moving forward (but frequently does – the Rox aren’t the only organization guilty of this). As Ag said – give Bridich an “A” on this one. It’s OK to make mistakes if you recognize them and correct them. My other Hope – as noted previously – is that this plus the… Read more »

Agbayani
Agbayani
5 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

I agree on Bryant — it’s one thing for a team like the Rockies (not expecting to compete) to delay a guy’s arbitration clock, but there’s no reason why the Cubs shouldn’t be planning to make a run for the playoffs this year. Gotta go with the best you’ve got.

Agbayani
Agbayani
5 years ago

So who’s the presumptive 5th starter? Or should I say who are the TWO presumptive nonstarters who will likely be penciled in when DLR goes on the DL? 1. Kendrick 2. Matzek 3. Lyons 4. Gray? 5. Butler? 6. Hale? Bergman? Which reminds me, I didn’t weigh in on Kendrick, Opening Day Starter. Carp, you hit that one on the head — Kendrick himself (and his agent) never could have seen that coming. Shades of Shawn Estes as opening day… Read more »

Gary
Gary
5 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

I’d go twin B’s-Butler/Bettis based on ST performance so far.

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

One of these days I’m going to convince you Jordan the Lyon Lyles has a chance to be a decent #4 type ML starter! πŸ™‚

I fear a John Lannan chapter in the “History of the Rox” is about to be written.

Julian
Julian
5 years ago

I wonder if a pitcher will come via trade. Do you guys who have been to spring training have an opinion as to whether Kyle Parker is ready to be a major leaguer? And we know that David Dahl is coming, maybe by the end of 2016. So, if there are teams with needs for outfielders, and we could trade Barnes or Stubbs for a good young pitcher, that might make sense. Also, we have an abundance of decent infielders,… Read more »

Julian
Julian
5 years ago

I wonder if a pitcher will come via trade. Do you guys who have been to spring training have an opinion as to whether Kyle Parker is ready to be a major leaguer? And we know that David Dahl is coming, maybe by the end of 2016. So, if there are teams with needs for outfielders, and we could trade Barnes or Stubbs for a good young pitcher, that might make sense. Also, we have an abundance of decent infielders,… Read more »

Agbayani
Agbayani
5 years ago

Predictions: 79-83. RMH beat me to it. Biggest (positive) surprise: Betancourt. Damned if the old man isn’t back to his same old self. Check out his fangraphs page — one of their writers did an interesting study of his pitch locations against righties and lefties. He really is an unusual (almost unique) pitcher in recent baseball history in some obscure ways. Now remember I picked Masset last year, which didn’t work out so well. I consider this category to be… Read more »

Trip
Trip
5 years ago

hello all you Fans of the Rox. I missed you all. Ski season is over, time to jump to baseball. Kudos to Lindsey Vonn for setting the women’s record for most world cup wins. And kudos to Mikaela Shiffrin who will break them. I’ve not posted in a while, but tried to keep up on the reading. Note to Jaredean, tried posting a couple times from my iPad. Click on submit and it goes away without the post. I’m just… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago
Reply to  Trip

It makes me feel better that there’s at least one RWOer more down on the team/organization than myself. Welcome back Trip!

roxnsox
roxnsox
5 years ago

I haven’t read any of the previous comments. I’ve been letting it simmer since the question was posed. Tonight, here it came: 71 wins Best player: Tulo, MVP level Biggest surprise player: Tulo plays 150 games with no injuries Biggest disappointment player: the team as road hitters, letting another season, and maybe Tulo’s last in his prime, pass by and be wasted Tie for biggest disappointment player: starting pitchers. Not enough. Injuries. Flailing around to try to back and fill.… Read more »

roxnsox
roxnsox
5 years ago

I haven’t seen much of him at first, but from bits I’ve heard/read and his diving catch that I did see tonight, I’d say Wilin “17” Rosario is getting comfy over there!

Agbayani
Agbayani
5 years ago

Roxnsox, are you saying the days of “I blame Wilin” are coming to an end? We can’t blame O’Dowd for assembling our rag tag bunch of starters, now we can’t blame Wilin for failing to turn a marginal 5th starter into an ace? Why even have these fansites anymore?

roxnsox
roxnsox
5 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

We’ll find somebody to blame, no fear, Ag! Fun on the Fansite! πŸ˜‰

Gary
Gary
5 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

As an early adapter of the “blame it on Wilin” manta,I now blame him for looking too good and hustling too much thus giving hope to all you purple Kool-Aid drinkers.

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago

Subtle changes in the ST rotation are making it look as though Jon Gray WILL in fact make the roster.

roxnsox
roxnsox
5 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

Ack. The changes aren’t even subtle anymore. I haven’t read up yet today, but Butler with shoulder tiredness yesterday? Yikes. Add it to the pile, and see my prediction about pitcher injuries πŸ™

Agbayani
Agbayani
5 years ago

Ag’s 2015 Planet Alignment Theory: How to Get to 84 Wins, and, With a Little Luck, a Wild Card OK, let’s start at the beginning. I’ll look at 3 very good projection systems: Steamer and Zips (both featured on fangraphs now) and Clay Davenport (on his website, with no catchy name). First, note that these systems are based on individual player projections, which are based on the replacement-level player concept. Imagine a team composed of all Rafael Ynoas and Brandon… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

Beautiful! 3 thoughts about this scenario. First and foremost, I hope it happens. Secondly, the scenario will give Monfart’s Rooftop a +10 WAR. Thirdly – and seriously – what this scenario does is justify a couple of DL trades. Perhaps picking up another .5WAR with a better SP for 2 months. Perhaps something similar with a really good RP. I’m starting the the Nationals might not lap the field. They’ve got some bullpen issues, and some injury issues. But I’m… Read more »

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
5 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

Love your realistic PAT based on a few projections and not getting too crazy on a planet to add another 5 wins.

I would tweak it just a bit – Eddie Butler does better than replacement level by a win or two.

If one or two planets get out of sync, that would still give us 81-81 record?

Bob in Indy
Bob in Indy
5 years ago

Geez, RMH, my previously stated prediction is for an 81-81 season, and I didn’t even need to go through this analysis to come up with it! LOL

As stated before, I am not optimistic this spring, but I may just need to go buy a telescope and check the alignment of the planets. Fun read, Ag!

Agbayani
Agbayani
5 years ago

In the cold, snowy, light of morning, let me tweak my PAT a little: 1. Probably too aggressive to hope for +1.5 from Tulo, + 1.5 from Cargo, and +1.0 from Arenado. I’d say 1.0, 1.5, 0.5 respctively. That drops off one win. 2. Probably too pessimistic to give the bullpen credit for only +1.0 win. They were so bad last year (and a lot of this year’s projections factor in those terrible performances like Logan’s anti-career year), I’d say… Read more »

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago
Reply to  Agbayani

Ag – my fear this year is that we have a brutal April schedule. 9 of first 12 on the road (the 3 at home are against the surging Cubs). Then we come home for our first extended home stand April 20th and have 4 against the Padres and 3 against SF, before going on road to AZ for 3 to close out the month. So we can be healthy, play well, and still come out of April with a… Read more »

rockymountainhigh
Admin
rockymountainhigh
5 years ago
Reply to  sdcarp

I like the fact the Rockies go out on the road a lot early in the year while they can still hit away from home coming out of ST. And before the Coors Field Effect grab a hold of their bats.

sdcarp
sdcarp
5 years ago

RMH – that’s actually quite an interesting theory you have. I wonder if anyone has ever analyzed the ROX road batting statistics on a “by month” basis to see if there is a decline as the season progresses?

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